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On-going research

Prof. Manfred Green

The aim of this study is to compare the economic impact and the health benefits obtained (using measures such as years of life lost) under different policies of social distancing (closing of schools, businesses, etc.) isolation of contacts and travel restrictions.
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in extraordinary measures being taken to control the spread the disease in different countries. In the early containment and delay phases, countries have instituted requirements for isolation of patients, self-isolation of contacts for at least 14 days, severe travel restrictions and closure of schools and academic institutions. In addition, restrictions on gatherings of large numbers of people and advice to older to avoid visiting public places, is having a major impact on places of entertainments, small businesses, restaurants, etc.
All these measures will have a major impact on the economy of the country. The measures used to contain and slow down the pandemic at the country level are important to allow the health services to be upgraded and prevent a sudden increase in severe cases requiring hospitalization. It also should reduce large scale absenteeism during a short period of time, impacting on the ability to maintain essential services.
While it seems logical that these steps should improve the ability of health system to function as it should, it is not clear to what extent they will actually save lives. The aim of this study is to carry out basic modeling and a sensitivity analyses of the economic impact under different scenarios and estimate the years of life lost under stringent restrictions of social isolation and travel restrictions as opposed to milder restrictions. Among other things, the study will apply economic modelling based on HTA analysis (including cost per QALYs units) to assess the long-term economic savings to the economy, from reduced morbidity and overall death toll, vs. the short and term losses to the Israeli economy, due to the current restrictions.

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מחקר בהתהוות

פרופ' מירי כהן ופרופ' דנה יגיל, הפקולטה למדעי הרווחה והבריאות, אוניברסיטת חיפה

רקע: מגפת הקורונה המתרחשת כמעט בכל מקום בעולם, מלווה בחוסר וודאות, הן בקרב האזרחים והן בקרב מקבלי ההחלטות בגופים הציבוריים, לגבי הדרך הנכונה להתמודד עמה, מתי היא צפויה להסתיים וכיצד יראו "החיים שאחרי". גורמי לחץ אלו מצטרפים ללחץ יומיומי הכרוך בדאגות בריאותיות וכלכליות, ובשינויים משמעותיים באורחות החיים הנובעים מתקנות הריחוק החברתי. לכל זאת יש השפעה על המצב הפיזי והנפשי של האוכלוסייה. מחקרים קודמים הראו כי מצבי לחץ מתמשכים עלולים להביא לעלייה בסימפטומים של דחק פוסט טראומטי.
מטרות: מטרת המחקר הנוכחי הייתה לבחון את השפעות של מכלול הגורמים הקשורים לדחק פוסט טראומטי ולזהות קבוצות הנמצאות בסיכון גבוה לפיתוח סימפטומים פוסט טראומטיים.
שיטות: סקר מקוון נערך בקרב מדגם של אזרחים ישראליים. המשתתפים התבקשו לדווח על סימפטומים של דחק פוסט טראומטי, אובדן משאבים, לחץ מאי ודאות, תחושת בדידות, הנחות עולם וצמיחה פוסט טראומטית. הסקר הועבר ע"י מכון סקרים לאותם משתתפים ב-3 נקודות זמן: 1. כחודש לאחר היציאה מהסגר (יוני 2020) 653 משתתפים, 2. לאחר הסרת מרבית מגבלות הסגר (יולי 2020) 261 משתתפים, 3. כחודשיים לאחר היציאה מהסגר (אוגוסט 2020) 256 משתתפים.
ממצאים: בזמן 1, המשתתפים דירגו את רמת הדחק הפוסט טראומטי כנמוך (חוויה מחדש (ממוצע=2.15, ס.ת=1.09), הימנעות (ממוצע=2.13, ס.ת=1.14), ניתוק (ממוצע=2.22, ס.ת=1.15), עוררות (ממוצע=1.77, ס.ת=1.04)). בזמן 2 נצפתה עלייה (p<0.001) ובזמן 3 ירידה (p=0.02). בזמן 1, 31% דיווחו כי חוו את כל ארבעת הסימפטומים של דחק פוסט טראומטי ברמה מסוימת. בזמן 2, 38% דיווחו כי חוו את כל ארבעת הסימפטומים ובזמן 3, 39% דיווחו על כך. ממוצעי תתי הסולמות של הנחות העולם היו ברמה בינונית-גבוהה: מידה בינונית של הנחת עולם צודק, מידה בינונית גבוהה של הנחת עולם נשלט ועולם צפוי. לא נמצאו שינויים בין הזמנים בהנחות העולם על כל תתי הסולמות. רמת הבדידות של המשתתפים הייתה בינונית ורמת הצמיחה הפוסט טראומטית הייתה בינונית-נמוכה (קשר עם אחרים (ממוצע=2.26, ס.ת=1.23), אפשרויות חדשות (ממוצע=2.19, ס.ת=1.30), חוזק אישי (ממוצע=2.54, ס.ת=1.23), שינוי רוחני (ממוצע=2.07, ס.ת=1.57), הערכה לחיים (ממוצע=2.78, ס.ת=1.26). עליה קלה נצפתה ברמת הבדידות בין הזמנים וירידה קלה בצמיחה הפוסט טראומטית. עם זאת, שינויים אלו לא היו מובהקים. אובדן משאבים וחשש מאי הודאות היו באמצע הסולם (ממוצע= 3.62, ס.ת=1.60 וממוצע=3.58, ס.ת=1.44 בהתאמה) והצביעו על רמות בינוניות של אובדן משאבים ושל חשש מאי ודאות. בזמן 2 אובדן משאבים גדל ונשאר גבוהה גם בזמן 3 (p=0.001). לא נצפו שינויים מובהקים בחשש מאי ודאות בין שלושת הזמנים.
הרגרסיה הליניארית המרובה לדחק פוסט טראומטי הראתה כי בזמן 1 סימפטומים של דחק פוסט טראומטי היו קשורים ביותר אובדן משאבים, לחץ מאי ודאות, בדידות והנחת עולם צודק. כמו כן, משתתפים שדיווחו על מצב תעסוקתי אחר (חופשת לידה, סטודנטים ואנשים בגיל הפרישה) דיווחו על רמות גבוהות יותר של דחק פוסט טראומטי. בזמן 2, אובדן משאבים, לחץ מאי ודאות, בדידות, הנחות עולם נשלט ודחק פוסט טראומטי בזמן 1 היו קשורים בדחק פוסט טראומטי גבוה בזמן 2. למוסלמים ולאלו שדיווחו על דת "אחרת" היו רמות דחק טראומטי נמוכות יותר. בזמן 3, לחץ מאי ודאות ובדידות ניבאו דחק פוסט טראומטי. עם זאת, דחק פוסט טראומטי בזמן 1, ניבא דחק פוסט טראומטי נמוך יותר בזמן 3. ממצאי הרגרסיה לניבוי צמיחה פוסט טראומטית הראו כי בזמן 2 יותר סימפטומים פוסט טראומטיים בזמן 2 ובדידות בזמן 1 נבאו צמיחה בזמן 2. בנוסף, אלו שדיווחו על דת אחרת ונולדו בישראל, דיווחו על צמיחה רבה יותר. בזמן 3, רמה נמוכה של בדידות בזמן 3 ושל סימפטומים פוסט טראומטיים בזמן 2, נבאו צמיחה בזמן 3. בנוסף, מוסלמים, משתתפים בגיל מבוגר ואלו שעבדו, דיווחו על רמת צמיחה נמוכה יותר.
מסקנות: ממצאי המחקר מראים כי כשליש מהמשתתפים חווה סימפטומים פוסט טראומטיים ברמה מסוימת בכל שלושת הזמנים. גורמי הסיכון לסימפטומים פוסט-טראומתיים הם לחץ מאי ודאות, בדידות ואובדן משאבים. הרמות הנמוכות של צמיחה פוסט טראומטית מצביעים על כך שהציבור מתקשה לחוות שינוי חיובי כתוצאה מהמשבר. האספקטים השונים של צמיחה פוסט טראומטית כגון: קשר עם אחרים, חוזק אישי ואפשרויות חדשות, מאותגרים על ידי המצב המתמשך של ריחוק ובידוד חברתי. יתכן ולאחר שאיום הקורונה ירד בהדרגה, שינויים חיוביים יחלו להתרחש.
קיים צורך באיתור קבוצות הנמצאות בסיכון לסימפטומים פוסט-טראומתיים מתמשכים ובהצעת סיוע להתמודדות עם המצב ופתרון בעיות. תכניות התערבות לשיפור החוסן הרגשי יוכלו לסייע במתן כלים להתמודדות עם הלחץ הכרוני, למנוע התפתחות של סימפטומים של דחק פוסט טראומטי ולעודד צמיחה חיובית.

 

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מחקר בהתהוות

פרופ' דנה יגיל ופרופ' מירי כהן, הפקולטה למדעי הרווחה והבריאות, אוניברסיטת חיפה

רקע: מגפת הקורונה המתרחשת כמעט בכל מקום בעולם, מלווה בחוסר וודאות, הן בקרב האזרחים והן בקרב מקבלי ההחלטות בגופים הציבוריים, לגבי הדרך הנכונה להתמודד עימה, מתי היא צפויה להסתיים וכיצד יראו “החיים שאחרי”. גורמי לחץ אלו מצטרפים ללחץ יומיומי הכרוך בדאגות בריאותיות וכלכליות, ובשינויים משמעותיים באורחות החיים הנובעים מתקנות הריחוק החברתי. כמו כן, לתחושת הלחץ, האמון במקבלי החלטות ולאי הודאות יש חשיבות רבה לגבי הענות הציבור להנחיות משרד הבריאות.
מטרות: מטרות המחקר הנוכחי היו לבחון את השפעות של מכלול הגורמים הקשורים ללחץ ולזהות קבוצות הנמצאות בסיכון גבוה לפיתוח תגובות לחץ משמעותיות.
שיטות: סקר אינטרנטי נערך בקרב מדגם מייצג שלאזרחים ישראליים. המשתתפים התבקשו לדווח על תחושות מצוקה רגשית, ודאות לגבי האופן בו יראו החיים בעתיד, אמון בקובעי המדיניות, חשיפה לתקשורת, שמירה על כללי הבטיחות ומשאבים אישיים, חברתיים וכלכליים. הסקר הועבר ע”י מכון סקרים לאותם משתתפים ב-3 נקודות זמן: 1. במהלך הסגר (אפריל 2020) 718 משתתפים, 2. ביציאה מהסגר (מאי 2020), 630 משתתפים 3. לאחר הסרת מרבית מגבלות הסגר (יוני 2020), 502 משתתפים.
ממצאים כלליים: הבדלים מובהקים נמצאו בין המדידות במשתנים לחץ, התנהגויות בטיחות, דאגה מהדבקות, תחושת ודאות לגבי העתיד, חשש מאי הודאות, ואובדן משאבים, כאשר בהעברה הראשונה ממוצעי המדדים היו גבוהים יותר לעומת ההעברות השנייה והשלישית. משתתפים מבוגרים יותר, גברים, יהודים ואנשים עובדים, דיווחו על רמות לחץ ואי ודאות נמוכות יותר.
גורמים הקשורים למצוקה רגשית ולאמון במקבלי ההחלטות:
ניתוח רגרסיה מרובה לניבוי מצוקה נפשית מראה כי אובדן משאבים, אמון במקבלי ההחלטות, דאגה מהדבקות, והיבטים של חוסר הודאות ניבאו לחץ. בנוסף, נשים היו בסיכון גבוה יותר לחוות לחץ בהעברה הראשונה בלבד. בהעברה השנייה, רמת דתיות גבוהה נבאה פחות מצוקה רגשית (p=0.02).
ממצאי ניתוח רגרסיה מרובה עבור אמון במקבלי ההחלטות הראה כי ודאות לגבי החיים בעתיד וחשיפה לתקשורת מנבאות את רמת האמון (p<0.001), כך שיותר ודאות ויותר חשיפה לתקשורת קשורות באמון גבוה יותר. כמו כן, רמת דתיות גבוה, השכלה נמוכה ודת יהודית נבאו אף הן אמון גבוה יותר.
מסקנות: מצוקה נפשית נמצאה קשורה באופן עקבי להיבטים שונים של חוסר וודאות. השינויים התמידיים והלא צפויים שמתקיימים מאז פרצה המגיפה, יוצרים אפקט ממושך של חוסר וודאות ומקשים על תהליכים של הסתגלות ללחץ, שמתרחשים באירועי לחץ מוכרים שהם קצרי מועד או סטטיים יותר. מאפיינים אלו מחייבים התערבויות שמיועדות לשיפור החוסן הנפשי של אוכלוסייה באמצעות פיתוח אסטרטגיות להתמודדות עם לחץ וחוסר וודאות כרוניים ברמת הפרט והקהילה. בנוסף, הממצאים לפיהם המשאבים החברתיים נפגעו פחות ממשאבים אחרים למרות הסגר ונהלי הריחוק החברתי, מצביעים על האפשרות שמשאבים אלו עשויים למלא תפקיד מרכזי בשמירה על חוסן.

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Michal Shamai and Alisa C. Lewin
University of Haifa

Research funded by the Israel Ministry of Science and Technology

Goal: This study focuses on the way people living in poverty have coped with the challenges they encountered in face of the COVID 19 pandemic.  Four main areas were examined at two time points: 1) Emotional wellbeing, measured as levels of stress, anxiety, depression, and resilience. 2) Types of hardship and difficulties experienced (economic / social / family). 3) The specific need for services (welfare / health / education) and these services’ responsiveness (Social Security, Welfare, Health and Education Services). 4) Formal and informal sources of social support. In addition social workers from Departments of Social Services were asked how they perceived the pandemic’s impact on clients living in poverty.

People in Poverty

Method

Sample: Participants were recruited through departments of social services administration in the northern part of Israel. The first wave of data collection was carried out in May-June 2020, and included 88 participants.  This survey focused on  coping during the first lockdown. The second wave of data collection was carried out in August-September 2020, and included 82 participants (recruited from wave 1’s original sample).

Measurement Instrument: The questionnaire was delivered through telephone interviews. Most of the questions were identical in the two waves, to allow comparison and detect changes over time. The first questionnaire included the following topics: 1) Demographic information and background questions about work, income and hardships before the  pandemic and the lockdown. 2) Questions regarding work and income changes due to the pandemic and lockdown.  3) Types of  difficulties (financial / scial/ family) encountered during the lockdown. 4) Connection with formal and informal sources of support. 5) Type of help given by the Department of Social Services 6) Levels of stress (Anxiety and Depression) measured by BSI 7) Level of resilience, measured by CD-Risk 10 8) Levels of social support, measured by the Multidimensional Scale of Perceiver Social Support questionnaire (MSPSS). In the second wave we examined changes in all areas measured in the first wave.

Data Analysis: Data were analyzed using quantitative and qualitative (content analysis) methods. The quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics of each one of the waves and comparisons between the two waves. In addition, we conducted multivariate analyses to examine the effect of material hardship (and changes in material hardship) on stress, anxiety, depression, and resilience. The qualitative data consisted of participants’ comments throughout the interview and their responses to open questions in the survey. These data were examined using content analysis that identifies both common themes as well as unique responses.

Results

The findings show that people in poverty experienced increased hardships following the COVID 19 pandemic and the crisis it created. . These hardships affected multiple (if not all) life spheres: 1. Household expenses increased: a) Lockdown policy restricted most household members to stay at home most of the time, leading to increased household expenses. For example, children from economically distressed families, who are usually entitled to a warm lunch at school, had to eat all meals at home during lockdown, increasing food expenditures.   In addition, parents commented that on an increase in the amount of food eaten during lockdown, and the consequent increase in food expenditures.  This increased expenditure created a hardship for families living in poverty who typically live on strict and small budgets, with fewer reserves upon which to draw in times of crisis.   b) Staying at home also increased the use of electricity and subsequent expenses. c) Reductions in uses and trains sometimes forced people living in poverty to use taxis, which are a very expensive alternative to public transportation, thus increasing their transportation expenses.  2) Income declined: People living in poverty usually work in less protected sectors, in types of jobs  that do not enable online work or work from home.   Instead, many work in low-skilled jobs in places that cut hours or closed entirely due to lockdown.   Thus, many of the study’s participants were fired or sent on temporary unpaid leave of absence. The combination of declining incomes and increasing expenses created stress and increased material and emotional hardship. These hardships also led to difficulties with partners and conflicts about financial issues.  3) Difficulties with children: a) for long periods during COVID 19 pandemic, most children had to stay at home.  Homes are usually small and crowded, with little privacy. b)  Many families did not have computers or internet connection therefore their children could not participate in online learning. This situation improved by the second wave because many children received computers. c) Many parents felt they did not have the skills to help their children with distance learning because of their low levels of education, others did not have time, either because they were at work, or they had other children to help, or other household chores to complete. Needless to say, people in poverty cannot afford help from private tutors . d) Many parents felt they did not have the means to keep the children occupied during the long hours they were at home. They commented they did not have enough board games or electronic games for their children. e) Some participants reported that they had to leave very young children in the care of older siblings who were still young themselves, in order to go to work. f) Participants reported that many conflicts with partners were centered on raising the children during this difficult period. 4) Mental health: a) People in poverty have significantly higher level of stress, anxiety and depression and lower level of resilience than Israel’s general population. Anxiety levels among people in poverty declined in the second wave, whereas it increased in the general population, so that the difference between the two groups became non-significant by the second wave.  Levels of depression among people in poverty remained high and stable, but it increased in the general population, so here too there was no significant difference between the groups by wave 2.    In contrast to the convergence in levels of anxiety and depression, the difference in levels of resilience between the two populations remained statistically significant. b) Our multivariate analyses show that the number of material hardships increases stress, anxiety and depression in the first and second waves. Our findings also show that enduring material hardship (inability to pay household expenses before and after COVID 19) is associated with higher levels of stress, anxiety and depression and lower levels of resilience compared to people who are able to pay for expenses and to people whose ability to pay for expenses declined following COVID 19. 

5) Request for help: a) People in poverty request support from both formal and informal sources. The highest percentage of the participants reported the Departments of Social Service as their primary source of support. b) Most participants reported full or partial satisfaction from the social workers’ help, the level of satisfaction being higher in the first wave than the second. c) Most participants requested material help, such as, food, clothes for children, computers and more. d) Many participants expected social workers to initiate phone calls to inquire about material difficulties and their psychological needs. Many participants compared the first and second lockdowns, claiming there was substantial decline in social workers' help over time.   

Conclusions

 1) Contrary to the claim that people living in poverty were not harmed by the COVID 19 crisis because they subsist of welfare grants, our findings show that the crisis increased hardship and introduced new difficulties. a) We found that work activity and incomes declined.  b) We found strong evidence that material hardship increased due to COVID 19.   c) Crowded living conditions and lack of computers led to difficulties in online learning and to conflicts with the children and partners among people living in poverty. 2) People living in poverty depended on Social Services Departments and NGO's for fulfilling their basic needs since the pandemic started even more than before. 3) Many people of poverty also needed emotional support, and most of them received it from their social workers. 4) Material hardship has detrimental effects of emotional wellbeing, and enduring, long-term material hardship is more detrimental than recent material hardship. The group with the highest level of stress, anxiety and depression and lower level of resilience on average consisted of those who had difficulty meeting household expenses before the crisis and since its beginning. Thus, we conclude that the long term constant need to cope with material hardships results in mental burnout that  reduces the ability to cope with additional and unexpected challenges, such as those created by the pandemic.

Social Workers

Method

Sample: Our sample consists of 40 family social workers, mainly from the northern part of Israel.

Measurement Instrument: A survey that gathered information on the following topics: 1) Perceptions of clients in poverty before and during the pandemic. 2) Types of help that clients requested. 3) Contact with clients during first lockdown, between lockdowns. 4) Specific directives received from Department of Social Services regarding contact with clients during the COVID 19 crisis.

Data Collection: The social workers who agreed to take part in the study filled out the online questionnaire.

Data Analysis: Data analysis included descriptive statistics that were enriched by the responses to the open questions.

Results

 The social workers’ perceptions of clients’ needs, functioning, and emotional state was similar to those reported by the people in poverty.  Social workers reported that they got instructions to initiate phone calls to their clients in poverty (as most of the people in poverty reported). They also reported the challenges they encountered in their professional capacity due to the conditions created by the pandemic.  Social workers reported being overworked preparing food packages, as well as tending to their usual work.  In addition, social workers who were parents of young children experienced difficulty finding childcare solutions. 

Conclusions

 1) There is a need to repeat and clarify instructions and directives during long- term crisis situations. 2) There is a need to provide support and child-care to social workers during long-term crisis periods.   3) Low skill jobs (such as preparing food packages) can be transferred from trained social workers who have caseloads to deal with, to low skilled workers who need the income.

Implications and Practical Recommendation 

  • People in poverty have higher expenses following COVID-19, both during and after the lockdowns. Since they lack financial reserves, they find themselves facing financial difficulties within a very short time, and most do not seem to recover. Therefore, it is important to develop policy that takes this situation into consideration, to which the provision of food is not a complete answer. A financial grant is needed for this population, of a sum that is high enough to help them realistically meet their own and their children’s needs and to prevent further financial deterioration.
  • The high emotional stress presented by people in poverty must be considered, since the significant impact of stress goes beyond mental health, affecting physical health as well. Social workers require direction to initiate contact with their clients to provide constant support and guidance regarding various stress-inducing issues. Social workers succeeded in achieving this partly during the first lockdown, but less so between lockdowns and during the second lockdown.
  • People in poverty cannot be considered as one homogeneous group. The group that could never pay household expenses were at the highest risk for mental health issues and thus needs special attention during crises. They have no financial reserves and they experience long-term, enduring material hardship, which is associated with negative emotional outcomes.
  • Social workers need training programs in special telephone or online intervention techniques, especially for reducing anxiety and for increasing problem-solving and resilience. In addition, family social workers need to develop appropriate plans to help parents cope with their children in the specific pandemic-induced crisis. It is of paramount importance that the children of families in poverty will not be harmed in the long-term, and will be able to close the schooling gap created by the crisis and will be able to access higher education that can open opportunities to exit poverty.
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Bibliographic details:

Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management - Ministry of Education National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Emergency Management Information institute of the Ministry of Emergency Management ֲ(2020) 2019 Global Natural Disaster Assessment Report.

 

Abstract:

This report systematically assessed the global natural disasters occurred in 2019 and over the last 30 years, and analyzed the ranking of China in Asia and worldwide, using Global Disaster Database (EM-DAT), China's disaster data, and data collected from the insurance industry.

The main conclusions had been drawn as follows (pp. 3-4):

  1. In general, global natural disasters in 2019 were less severe;
  2. The majority of global disasters in 2019 were caused by floods with smaller losses than the average for recent years;
  3. 2019 witnessed only a few earthquakes, which was rare in recent years;
  4. The impact of bush fires was substantial;
  5. Developing countries account for a large share of the losses, with the United States and Japan showing significant losses;
  6. China's natural disasters losses were light overall but still ranked high in the world.

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Papadopoulos, G. A., Lekkas, E., Katsetsiadou, K. N., Rovythakis, E., & Yahav, A. (2020). Tsunami Alert Efficiency in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea: The 2 May 2020 Earthquake (Mw6. 6) and Near-Field Tsunami South of Crete (Greece). GeoHazards1(1), 44-60.

 

Abstract:

The Mediterranean tsunami warning system is based on national monitoring centers (Tsunami Service Providers, TSPs) and operates under the IOC/UNESCO umbrella. For the first time, we evaluate in-depth the system’s performance for improving its operational effectiveness in conditions of extremely narrow time frames due to the near-field tsunami sources. At time 10 (± 2) min from the origin time, to, of the 2 May 2020 (Mw6.6) earthquake in Crete, the Greek, Italian and Turkish TSPs sent alerts to civil protection subscribers. A small tsunami (amplitude ~16 cm a.m.s.l.) of magnitude Mt6.8, arriving at south Crete in ~17 min from to, was documented from tide-gauge records and macroscopic observations. The analysis of the upstream alert messages showed that the tsunami alert efficiency is not adequate, since (1) earthquake parameters of low accuracy were used for the initial message, (2) alerts were issued after some forecasted wave arrival times had expired, (3) alert messages are characterized by various discrepancies and uncertainties. Our calculations showed that the upstream component improves if the alert time is shortened by a few minutes and the initial earthquake parameters are more accurate. Very late procedures were noted in the Greek civil protection downstream component, thus rendering response actions useless. In Israel, a bit more time was available to the authorities for decision making. A drastic improvement of the downstream component is needed to achieve timely alerting for local authorities and communities.

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Yagoub, M. M. (2015). Spatio-temporal and hazard mapping of Earthquake in UAE (1984–2012): Remote sensing and GIS application. Geoenvironmental Disasters2(1), 13.

 

Abstract:

This study investigates the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake events taking place in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its effect on the population. In this study seven parameters are used for generation of a hazard map; this includes geology, soil, slope, land use, historical earthquake events, fault line, and roads. GIS weighted overlay analysis is used to demarcate the earthquake risk zones.

Analyzing data from 1984 to 2012 showed that during the period of 28 years there were frequent earthquakes that occurred with intensity ranges from mild to moderate with the maximum magnitude of 5.1. Spatially, earthquake events were found clustered in the Emirate of Fujairah in the Eastern part of UAE (Oman Thrust). Even the magnitude of the earthquakes is low, the frequency of being increased in the past few years coupled with urban development are point of concern and it becomes necessary to develop preventive measures such as hazard maps for the area.

The resulting map prepared is expected to increase the awareness for disaster prevention at the time of need and will help in the systematic and proper development of land use for community planning and mitigation policy.

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Schwartz Pourrabbani Marla (2020). 15 years after Katrina: The tale of a changing risk landscape. Swiss Reinsurance Company

 

Abstract:

Though New Orleans’ hurricane exposure and vulnerability have changed since Katrina, hurricane wind and storm surge continue to present a key risk to the Gulf Coast region, despite extensive mitigation efforts. Reviews of historical natural hazards, such as this one, are crucial for understanding today’s risk and for validating probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling and related assessments.

The sample scenarios in this report illustrate how the risk landscape has changed in the last 15 years due to changing hazard, exposure and protection factors. It is crucial to consider such factors when evaluating the current risk landscape or in any modelling exercise at the local level. Additionally, the scenarios here demonstrate the effectiveness of natural-hazard mitigation efforts and flood defences, as well as the role of re/insurance in enabling resilience.

From the article:

If Hurricane Katrina were to hit the US in 2020 with the same wind and storm surge as 2005, but with current exposure information and updated flood protection and vulnerability assumptions, the privately insured losses in the US alone could rise to 60bn (excluding offshore losses in the Gulf of Mexico or losses to the NFIP). This is true, despite the city currently only having 80% of the population it did in 2005. The total economic toll from such an event could likely exceed USD 175bn. These figures illustrate that despite New Orleans’ lower population and strengthened flood protection system, economic losses from natural hazards like Katrina are expected to continue to increase.

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Felsenstein, D., Elbaum, E., Levi, T., & Calvo, R. (2020). Post-processing HAZUS earthquake damage and loss assessments for individual buildings. Natural Hazards, 1-25.

Abstract:

Building damage probabilities are invaluable for assessing short-term losses from natural hazards. In many countries however, the individual building level data required for assessing reliable damage are usually unavailable. This paper shows how the post-processing of aggregate HAZUS earthquake damage assessments can yield building-level damage probabilities. On the basis of three plausible scenarios for Northern Israel, we generate and visualize a building-level combined damage probability index. We use the tools of exploratory spatial data analysis to purge any causal influences in the spatial pattern of these calculated damage probabilities. The costs and benefits of our approach are discussed.

Link to paper: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04293-1

Webpage: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-020-04293-1

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Fischer, I., Avrashi, S., Oz, T., Fadul, R., Gutman, K., Rubenstein, D., Kroliczak, G., Goerg, S. and Glöckner, A. (2020). The behavioural challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic: indirect measurements and personalized attitude changing treatments (IMPACT). Royal Society Open Science7(8), 201131.

Abstract:

Following the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the globe coerced their citizens to adhere to preventive health behaviours, aiming to reduce the effective reproduction numbers of the virus. Driven by game theoretic considerations and inspired by the work of US National Research Council’s Committee on Food Habits (1943) during WWII, and the postWWII Yale Communication Research Program, the present research shows how to achieve enhanced adherence to health regulations without coercion. To this aim, we combine three elements: (i) indirect measurements, (ii) personalized interventions, and (iii) attitude changing treatments (IMPACT). We find that a cluster of short interventions, such as elaboration on possible consequences, induction of cognitive dissonance, addressing next of kin and similar others and receiving advice following severity judgements, improves individuals’ healthpreserving attitudes. We propose extending the use of IMPACT under closure periods and during the resumption of social and economic activities under COVID-19 pandemic, since efficient and lasting adherence should rely on personal attitudes rather than on coercion alone. Finally, we point to the opportunity of international cooperation generated by the pandemic

Link to paper: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.201131

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