בתאריכים 30-31 במרץ 2020 יקיים המרכז סדנה בנושא: מידול משתף למערכות מורכבות לצורך תכנון למצבי חירום (Using participatory complex systems modeling to support decision-making for emergency planning). הסדנה תתקיים בשפה האנגלית באוניברסיטת חיפה ותכלול יומיים עם פרופ' מוירה זלנר מאוניברסיטת אילינוי בשיקגו (Moira Zellner, Associate Professor, Urban Planning and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago).

הסדנה תעסוק בכלים לרתום את הידע המצוי בידי בעלי עניין שונים לצורך קבלת החלטות במקרים מורכבים, כמו תכנון למניעת שריפות או הצפות או התמודדות איתן. התרגול בסדנה יתמקד בשריפות, וייעשה תוך שימוש בתוכנת מידול. הסדנה מיועדת לבעלי תפקידים ובעלי עניין במוכנות למצבי חירום בכלל ושריפות בפרט, מארגונים שונים כגון: מגיבים ראשונים (כבאות והצלה, מד"א, פיקוד העורף), רשויות מקומיות, רשות מקרקעי ישראל, קרן קיימת לישראל, רשות הטבע והגנים הלאומיים, החברה להגנת הטבע, מתכננים וכן קהילות ותושבים הגרים בסמיכות לאזורי יער וחורש.

ההשתתפות בסדנה אינה כרוכה בתשלום, אך מחייבת הרשמה בקישור כאן ואישור מראש. לסדנה ייבחרו כ-20 משתתפים מבין הנרשמים, ממגוון רחב ככל הניתן של ארגונים וגופים.

להלן פרוט על הסדנה:

Using participatory complex systems modeling to support decision-making for emergency planning

March 30-31, 2020

Guest investigator: Moira Zellner, Associate Professor, Urban Planning and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago

Purpose: The goal of this course is to introduce a range of stakeholders to participatory modeling (PM) as a collaborative analytical and management exercise to address the risk of forest fires near settlements. The use of PM was proposed given the need for coordination across decision-making entities whose goals and jurisdictions may not always align. The complex interaction effects between human decision making and environmental factors driving forest fires also presents the need for visualization tools to make unintended consequences visible and tractable, and support deliberation across diverse goals and objectives.

Process: This course will allow diverse stakeholders to jointly work on extending an existing model of the spread of fire through a forest, based on the Netlogo Fire model  (Wilensky 1997). The participants will first be introduced to the sample model, and then engage in a facilitated collaborative design process to: a) develop a conceptual narrative of the extended model that is relevant to forest and development management to minimize fire hazards; b) design the actors and biophysical components of the extended model with their respective attributes and behavior/process rules, derived from the conceptual narrative; c) design the output metrics of interest, and d) engage in the gradual development and testing of the tool. While no guarantees can be made about the extent to which the tool will be developed and used for actual decision-making, the discussions will be facilitated to focus on the learning process around model development, identifying critical interaction effects and potential policy/management scenarios that can enhance system resilience.

Partnerships: Approximately 15-20 participants will be recruited (press here for registration), representing the key stakeholders influencing and/or being affected by the problem: fire fighters, national land authority, forest managers (Keren Kayemet), national nature preserves, localities, residents who were displaced,  district planners, and communities next to forested areas. Participants will be involved in all steps of the process, as described above. Given the collaborative nature of the design and modeling process, ownership will also be collaborative. Further development beyond the course will depend on support available, and will continue to involve any of the participants, facilitators and investigators interested in contributing to the modeling.

Products: Outputs of the course will include the extended Fire model, together with any data inputs used to run it and output of simulation scenarios tested. In addition, participants will have ideally derived novel insights from interacting in the model development and testing that can inform management and policy decisions. Finally, we expect that some of these insights will also inform collaboration and coordination needs across the stakeholder agencies involved.

References:

Wilensky, U. (1997). NetLogo Fire model. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/Fire. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

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