Researchers:

Michal Shamai, Moshe Frachi and Danielle Ben-Dror

Objective:

This research examines the implications of the May 2019 fire for the residents of Mevo Modi’im, including loss of resources due to bodily damage, property damage, and economic damage. Additionally, this research describes mental health ramifications (post-trauma symptoms and personal resilience) and community resilience in the context of the fire. Finally, the study assessed the functioning of organizations active during and after the fire, including Israel Fire and Rescue Services, Magen David Adom, and the moatza ezorit (regional government council).

Methodoloy:

The research is based on a survey of 56 residents (43.7% of the 21-and-over residents that lived in Mevo Modim at the time of the fire), at two points in time, one month and 14-18 months after the fire. The survey included demographic information and questions about exposure of the fire, loss of physical resources, loss of psychological resources, and community resilience. Participants were also asked to assess the functioning of various organizations involved in the response.

Data collection:

Data was collected using a variety of methods, including telephone interviews, email, and survey distribution by town leadership. Data collection occurred one month and 14-18 months after the fire. In addition to the survey, descriptions and thoughts of town residents were written down for analysis. Additionally, in-depth interviews were conducted with two community leaders.

Data Analysis:

Quantitative statistical analysis was used alongside a qualitative thematic analysis.

Results:

1. Physical Loss: Most residents of Mevo Modi’im lost their home and/or possessions. Many of the residents stressed that, in addition to the loss of their homes and possessions, they also lost storage sheds and structures used for business. There was little bodily damage, compared with property and economic damage, the latter of which impacted over 60% of residents.

2. Mental Health Impact:

a. Trauma Symptoms:

- A month after the fire, reported trauma symptoms were moderate-severe. This is considered normal until six weeks after the event. However, over a year (14-18 months) after the fire, reported symptoms were under the threshold indicative of mental health injury, indicating high levels of mental resilience among residents.

- Women reported higher levels of trauma than men at both points in time. The level of reported symptoms among women remained moderate-severe even over a year after the event.

- Gender, economic damage and personal resilience were correlated with trauma symptoms one month after the fire. Gender, trauma symptoms one month after the event, bodily harm, and community resilience were correlated with trauma symptoms 14-18 months after the fire.

- Some residents claimed that the moatza ezorit did not offer adequate mental health treatment options for victims.

b. Personal Resilience:

The survey indicated a moderate level of personal resilience among residents at both points in time (2.73 and 2.98 of 4). There were no significant differences in resilience levels between the two points in time or between male and female respondents.

3. Community Resources:

- The perception of community resilience at both points in time was low-moderate (2.78 and 2.87 of 5, accordingly).

- The slight decrease in perceived community resilience between the first and second point in time was not statistically significant.

- Of all sub-measures, feeling of belonging was the highest (moderate-high, at 3.89 and 3.75). The decrease in feeling of belonging at the second point in time was likely due to the fact that the community was spread out across the country for a long period following the fire.

- Women reported stronger perceptions of community resilience than men.

- In the thematic analysis, many of the participations noted the complicated situation of Mevo Modi’im before the fire as follows:

(a). a long-standing dispute with the Israel Land Authority as to the status of the town (moshav or yishuv kehilati), caused several residents to lose property.

(b). the founders, followers of Rabbi Shlomo Carlbach, described as “hippies” didn’t believe in the establishment or know how to effectively utilize government and regional council resources. Findings indicated a gap between the founders and the second generation.

(c). residents had mixed opinions concerning conduct during the fire.

(d). after the fire, the time period in which the community was housed at Chafetz Chaim was perceived as a time of strong community resilience and increased feelings of unity. Afterwards, many respondents noted that the community fell apart.

(e). as residents began returning to Mevo Modi’im, 14+ months after the fire, some participants saw the fire as a “something of a gift” that was given by G-d or Rabbi Carlbach in order to achieve community recognition by government institutions. Alongside the expressed hope, some participants expressed concern that residents lacked the savvy use the circumstances to achieve their desired goals.

4. Assessment of responding organizations:

Israel Fire and Rescue Services: Respondents expressed criticism about the level of preparedness and functioning during the fire. There were no positive assessments of the IFRS among respondents.

Moatza Ezorit (Regional Municipality): Respondents described the initial response of the regional council in positive terms, but described the long-term response and recovery negatively. Many expressed feelings of distance and disconnect between residents and the moatza. Respondents described rejection by the regional council, unprofessional conduct, unfairness, and contempt for residents.

Police: There was criticism of the fact that the case was closed before investigating whether the fires were started in an act of intentional terrorism, as several firefighters claimed. If this claim had been proven, residents would have been entitled to compensation.

Volunteering Organizations: Much appreciation was expressed concerning the work of volunteer organizations. However, some respondents noted that many of the services and aid provided by volunteers should have been provided by the government.

Recommendations for organizations:

The character of the community of Mevo Modi’im has been impacted by prolonged conflicts with the Israel Land Authority, leading to a distrust of both the local and national establishment. These recommendations relate to Mevo Modi’im specifically. Any generalizations should be made cautiously and with sensitivity to the unique characteristics of each locality.

Israel Fire and Rescue Services:

- When preparing for fires in high risk areas, the IFRS should make efforts to become familiar with the character of the town and residents by meeting with the moatza and/or vaad mekomi (town council). Preparations should include the adjustments needed to fit the local culture and population.

- There were many reports that individual firefighters told residents that, based on the nature of the fire, it must have been started intentionally- maybe even as an act of terrorism. However, eventually it was determined to be a natural disaster, which had significant financial implications for residents who experienced loss. This sparked disappointment and distrust among residents. It is recommended that the IFRS instruct individual employees not to discuss hypotheses about a fire during the event.

- A fire that causes significant damage will undoubtedly elicit criticism of the firefighters. It is recommended that the IFRS organize a meeting between residents and firefighters after the event. In this meeting firefighters can explain the challenges faced and the approach taken, including what did and did not work. After this, residents should have a chance to ask questions and express themselves. It is important to prepare the firefighters that, in such a meeting, they will encounter criticism and anger. Such preparation should be done by professionals, such as community social workers and social/organizational psychologists. Additionally, there must be further thought about ways to protect firefighters from potential harm or fallout (such as letters of indictment) from such a meeting. Ultimately, the goal of the meeting should be to benefit residents by providing them with information. Professional information and explanations should reduce the anger of residents and increase their trust in the establishment, which should increase individual resilience and reduce trauma symptoms.

Police:

Residents expressed much frustration that the police force closed their investigation into the fire without fully investigating whether it was an act of terrorism. It is important that the police provide the public with better information.

Government/State:

In the case of an event on the scale of the fire that which destroyed Mevo Modi’im, it is critical that a representative of the government (such as the Minister of Internal Security or Welfare Minister) come and listen to the demands and complaints of residents. This can reduce the distrust that residents have of the establishment. Also, the government needs to direct and manage all response and recovery efforts.

Moatza Ezorit:

- In forested regions, like Mevo Modi’im, it is recommended that emergency preparations and implementation of the lessons learned from emergency drills be overseen by the moatza together with the vaad mekomi. Many participants reported problems became apparent while practicing emergency drills, but they were not addressed. The moatza needs to follow through making sure necessary changes are implemented.

- In forested areas, it is recommended to increase the awareness of residents (not just of the local volunteer first-response team) of fire risks, particularly during dry seasons. Additionally, guidelines for how to act during a fire (including whom to inform and what to take from a home) should be publicized. These guidelines should be publicized and practiced during the year until they become second nature for residents.

- When residents are evacuated, if there is enough time, it is recommended to instruct evacuees to take a backpack with a few items, including clothing and items with high sentimental value. Although this may increase stress levels, it will also help residents cope in the immediate and long-term aftermath of a fire.

- The moatza needs to make intensive efforts to help residents recover after a fire until the point of complete, long-term recovery. This should be done in conjunction with the vaad mekomi.

- In the event that most of a community is housed elsewhere for a period, it is optimal to find a housing arrangement that keeps residents geographically close to one another. Scattering residents across the country decreases the feeling of belonging and hurts communal resilience.

- In the immediate aftermath of an emergency, it is important to conduct meetings with communal social workers or experts in communal resilience in order to allow the community to create a communal narrative of the traumatic event. Besides creating unity and a sense of communal belonging, this exercise allows the community to create a common narrative. Additionally, crises tend to amplify feelings of “what isn’t right”, which may lead to decreased personal and communal resilience. Therefore, experts should assist the community in identifying points of resilience in their narrative, in order to draw attention to and amplify feelings of strength.

- It is important that social workers of the moatza meet with every family separately during the first year after the event (and throughout the recovery process). This is particularly important in small town. The goal of these meetings is to convey a sense of care and concern on the part of the government. In these meetings, social workers should assess the needs of families and help the family obtain assistance from various sources. Additionally, these meetings give families a meaningful sense of social support, which can decrease symptoms of post-trauma.

- In the immediate aftermath of a crisis, mental health professionals (psychologist and social workers) should perform an initial assessment of individuals at high risk for developing symptoms of trauma and provide treatment accordingly. This is particularly important given that this study points to the level of post-traumatic symptoms experienced one month after the fire to be correlated with the continued experience of symptoms in the long-term.

- During all emergency preparations the moatza and vaad mekomi should take note of all town residents, including temporary residents and those without local family. There were reports that renters were left feeling rejected and their needs ignored.

- In order to implement the recommendations for the moatza, it is critical to establish a resilience cell that is on-call at all times and can respond immediately. The resilience cell should be made up of professionals who undergo training specific to emergency response and who have an established, on-going relationship with the community.

See here for final report (in Hebrew)

Bibliographic details:

Strelkovskii, N., Rovenskaya, E., Ilmola-Sheppard, L., Bartmann, R., Rein-Sapir, Y., & Feitelson, E. (2022). Implications of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies for National Well-Being: A Systems Perspective. Sustainability, 14(1), 433.

Abstract:

The ongoing COVID-19 crisis and measures aimed at curbing the pandemic have a widespread impact on various aspects of well-being, such as housing, social connections, and others. Moreover, COVID-19 does not affect all population groups equally. This study analyzes the impact of major COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on a set of national well-being indicators from the most recent version of the OECD Well-Being Framework. Using causal loop diagrams (systems maps), we consider direct and indirect effects of these policies on various components of the national well-being system. Our results show that business closures directly and/or indirectly impact more national well-being components than any other policy. The most affected national well-being components by all policies are life satisfaction, perceived health, and prevalence of depressive symptoms. In addition, we specify how the impact of the anti-pandemic measures differs for various population strata, using the degree of income and employment loss as key stratifying variables. Our insights can be helpful to identify and promote measures that can alleviate the adverse effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the national well-being.

Webpage: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/1/433

Bibliographic details:

ISC-UNDRR-IRDR. 2021. A Framework for Global Science in support of Risk Informed Sustainable Development and Planetary Health [eds Handmer, John; Vogel, Coleen; Payne, Ben; Stevance, Anne-Sophie; Kirsch-Wood, Jenty; Boyland, Michael; Han, Qunli; Lian, Fang]; Paris, France, International Science Council; Geneva, Switzerland, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction; Beijing, China, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk. DOI: 10.24948/2021.07.

Abstract:

Solutions to the combined risks and crises facing humanity and the planet can be found through the collaborative efforts made to drive change through utilizing all relevant knowledge and policy resources, including new knowledge acquired from the research set out in this document. Many of the major global crises and threats are well known: the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, ecosystem and biodiversity collapse and financially and socially induced risks. Less well known are the day-to-day crises and risks that affect much of the globe as a result of inequalities and vulnerabilities, which are often exacerbated by globalization, digitalization, severe environmental degradation and unsustainable development. Disaster risk has therefore come to occupy a central place in global development, with science needing to be more effective, innovative and collaborative in order to address intensifying risk exposure and vulnerability in the global context. Coherence between the 2015 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and parallel major United Nations frameworks concerned with addressing risks – such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Paris Agreement on climate change, New Urban Agenda, Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for development and Agenda for Humanity – will also assist in addressing inequalities and instilling risk reduction as a critical function of development.

The global risk landscape, and human responses to risk, are therefore undergoing rapid and profound changes (Steffen et al. 2015). Recognition of the Anthropocene era, in which humanity is the major force of planetary change, is also an acknowledgement of the urgency of the situation (Folke et al. 2021). The global trend is for more severe and complex impacts, which is reflected in increasing concern about and acknowledgement of complex and systemic risks whose impacts cascade through social, economic and environmental systems. This situation underlines the growing interconnectivity and interdependence across and within human, technological and biophysical systems and highlights the potential for physical and socioeconomic tipping points that could have significant systemic effects.

The COVID-19 pandemic not only is a systemic risk (Cook and Penzini, 2020; Rizwan et al 2020), but lacks clear geographical and temporal boundaries. The virus and the response that it has engendered highlight the complexity of global risk and the fragility of human systems, including the weakness of global risk governance, which is often disconnected from local risk realities and governance efforts. It has also highlighted the challenges posed by an environment awash with misinformation and a multiplicity of diverse information sources. Existing approaches to thinking about and managing risk have been overwhelmed by the pandemic’s systemic nature, which shows how global risks can fundamentally alter how humanity lives, even if not threatening our existence.

Rapid political, social and technological developments, in addition to climate change, are contributing to the shifting landscape. There is an overriding need to go well beyond siloed thinking and the desire to preserve the status quo if these closely linked global imperatives are to be addressed successfully. Returning to, and supporting, the status quo is what many disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience approaches aim to achieve; however, while this can be very successful in protecting lives, livelihoods and assets, it can also entrench existing vulnerabilities and other risk drivers and limit the potential for transformation.

The challenges are daunting but, because development processes drive them, they are also amenable to policy and local action. It is worth noting that almost half the urban infrastructure anticipated for 2050 is yet to be built; further, new open and integrated data systems will allow complex challenges to be resolved. Much COVID-19 recovery planning incudes increased public and political acknowledgment of the centrality of reducing social vulnerability as a strategy for building resilience to multiple, and as yet unknown, risks. Realizing these opportunities will require DRR to be reimagined, extending it from a singular focus on major events to a proactive, inclusive and risk-based approach that incorporates climate adaptation, vulnerabilities and development in order to address the causes as well as consequences of disaster. Risk science should motivate the search for opportunities and solutions, building on the success of contemporary DRR with its major reductions in the human toll of disasters through warning systems, emergency management and enhanced preparedness.

To identify knowledge gaps and priorities and to build the evidence base needed for risk-informed decision-making in all geographical contexts and sectors and at all scales, the agenda developed here seeks to engage with and reflect the priorities and interests of groups beyond traditional DRR research and practice. The consultative process, which is set out in section 2, below, and in more detail in Appendix 1, included disaster risk scientists, researchers, academics, and technical institutions in both the public and private sectors, traditional and indigenous knowledge holders, as well as funders of research and practice. The agenda calls for an integrated, inclusive, systemic approach to risk reduction that gives prominence to the issues of justice and equity. The emerging collaborative, integrative approaches of “One Health” and “Planetary Health” (The Lancet, 2015), which emphasize the integrative nature of people, plants, animals and their shared environment, offer a possible pathway. An integrated approach of this type is seen as an important step in reducing the risk of future zoonotic pandemics (Mackenzie and Jeggo, 2019).

The agenda helps to identify the needs of stakeholders and actors working at country, regional and international levels and is, in turn, itself guided by those needs. It will also guide the development of research to address those needs and to help solve broader issues. The agenda’s audience is all those engaged in DRR and related risk, resilience, adaptation and development action as practitioners, policymakers, researchers and knowledge holders. This extends to those working on all aspects of vulnerability and to those funding research and practice for risk and development, as well as the associated areas of human and planetary change.

This document sets out the detailed rationale and process for developing the agenda, a review of the trends in and status of disaster risk knowledge, the research priorities comprising the agenda and an implementation guide (see figure 1.1). Additional detail and supporting material can be found in the appendices to this document. The agenda does not have a set time span and is intended to serve as a framework to guide and inspire, rather than prescribe. It will be a reference document for communities of practice to draw on, debate and adapt to contexts and priorities. The agenda’s implementation is in the hands of all disaster risk-related actors and stakeholders across the world, and its success will depend on transdisciplinary and multisectoral collaboration at all levels.

Link to file: https://www.irdrinternational.org/uploads/files/bhfPt7WZztTDhMkxiC5J2GCDEeitvb7ZEik2W2PD//DRR_GlobalScience-Framework-FINAL.pdf

Bibliographic details:

Kanbara, S., & Shaw, R. (2022). Disaster Risk Reduction Regime in Japan: An Analysis in the Perspective of Open Data, Open Governance. Sustainability, 14(1), 19.

Abstract:

This paper addresses open data, open governance, and disruptive/emerging technologies from the perspectives of disaster risk reduction (DRR). With an in-depth literature review of open governance, the paper identifies five principles for open data adopted in the disaster risk reduction field: (1) open by default, (2) accessible, licensed and documented, (3) co-created, (4) locally owned, and (5) communicated in ways that meet the needs of diverse users. The paper also analyzes the evolution of emerging technologies and their application in Japan. The four-phased evolution in the disaster risk reduction is mentioned as DRR 1.0 (Isewan typhoon, 1959), DRR 2.0 (the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake, 1995), DRR 3.0 (the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami: GEJE, 2011) and DRR 4.0 (post GEJE). After the GEJE of 2011, different initiatives have emerged in open data, as well as collaboration/partnership with tech firms for emerging technologies in DRR. This paper analyzes the lessons from the July 2021 landslide in Atami, and draws some lessons based on the above-mentioned five principles. Some of the key lessons for open data movement include characterizing open and usable data, local governance systems, co-creating to co-delivering solutions, data democratization, and interpreting de-segregated data with community engagement. These lessons are useful for outside Japan in terms of data licensing, adaptive governance, stakeholder usage, and community engagement. However, as governance systems are rooted in local decision-making and cultural contexts, some of these lessons need to be customized based on the local conditions. Open governance is still an evolving culture in many countries, and open data is considered as an important tool for that. While there is a trend to develop open data for geo-spatial information, it emerged from the discussion in the paper that it is important to have customized open data for people, wellbeing, health care, and for keeping the balance of data privacy. The evolution of emerging technologies and their usage is proceeding at a higher speed than ever, while the governance system employed to support and use emerging technologies needs time to change and adapt. Therefore, it is very important to properly synchronize and customize open data, open governance and emerging/disruptive technologies for their effective use in disaster risk reductionץ

Webpage: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010019

Bibliographic details:

Young, A. F. (2022). From federal transfers and local investments to a potential convergence of COVID-19 and climate change: The case study of São Paulo city. Sustainable Cities and Society, 76, 103450.

Abstract:

This paper is divided into two parts to explore some aspects of municipal development related to national and subnational investments in disaster risk reduction and urban sustainability related to Covid-19 and climate change response. In Part I, a survey on disasters and national transfers to 45 Brazilian municipalities is presented. In Part II, the local-scale approach enabled to compare the areas most affected by COVID-19 with those impacted by climate change. There are large uncertainties around financial support from the federal government and their impact at local scale. São Paulo city was chosen because it reveals some important aspects of spatial structure carried out through local investments. In this sense, updated information on floods and warmer surfaces were updated to provoke a discussion about a potential confluence with the effects of pandemic. The results highlighted the effects of scarce federal transfers and the maps help us to identify the spatial distribution of people at risk, which can be beneficial for municipal decisions as they highlight a significative relationship between pandemic effects and an uneven social structure. In conclusion, the trade-off between this unequal structure and a necessary and effectively sustainable change leads us to reflect on local investment trends.

Webpage: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103450

Bibliographic details:

Shlomo Mizrahi, Adar Ben-Eliyahu, Nissim Cohen, Uri Hertz, Rotem Miller-Mor, Efrat Mishor & Eran Vigoda-Gadot (2022): Public management during a crisis: when are citizens willing to contribute to institutional emergency preparedness?, Public Management Review, 1-25. DOI: 10.1080/14719037.2022.2042727
https://doi.org/10.1080/14719037.2022.2042727

Abstract:

Institutional emergency management has become an integral part of public management practice and research. This paper investigates the factors related to people’s willingness to contribute to institutional emergency preparedness. We explore the relationships between this willingness and people’s perceptions about the likelihood of government handling emergencies effectively, the risks of emergencies, and their relationship with public sector organizations. Using a dataset collected in Israel at two points in time before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrate that people’s willingness to contribute to institutional emergency preparedness is strongly anchored in their evaluations of the public sector’s responsiveness and fairness.

Bibliographic details

Negev, Maya, Zohar, Motti and  Paz, Shlomit (2022). Multidimensional hazards, vulnerabilities, and perceived risks regarding climate change and Covid-19 at the city level: An empirical study from Haifa, Israel,Urban Climate,Volume 43,2022,101146,ISSN 2212-0955

Abstract
Climate hazards and vulnerabilities in cities are multidimensional. Natural features determine heat, floods and wildfires. Social features determine vulnerability and resilience. This study examined multidimensional hazards, vulnerabilities, and resilience in Haifa, a socially diverse Mediterranean city. Spatial indices of heatwaves, floods, wildfires and social vulnerability were developed by Geographic Information Systems geoprocessing functions using Digital Elevation Model, land use and welfare data. An online survey assessing risk perceptions, sense of danger and community resilience was distributed to residents (N = 549), and geocoded using street identification. The results show that climate hazards and vulnerabilities vary within the city and reflect its geographical and social characteristics: lower regions are prone to heat and floods and elevated neighborhoods to wildfires. All zones and segments of the population are in certain danger, but climate hazards and vulnerabilities are heterogeneous and unequally distributed, with certain neighborhoods more exposed. The downtown area is most vulnerable in social features, yet its residents have higher resilience perceptions compared to uptown, where the main hazard is wildfires and the main vulnerability is aging. Implications for urban climate policy: local stressors should be mitigated at the neighborhood level by investing in suitable infrastructure and fostering community resilience.

Webpage:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101146.

Bibliographic details:

IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.  

Abstract:

The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change.

The Sixth Assessment Report consists of contributions from each of the three IPCC Working Groups and a Synthesis Report (SYR), which integrates the Working Group contributions and the Special Reports produced in the cycle.

Webpage: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/

Bibliographic details

Newman Cohen, Avigail  & Fishhendler, Itay. (2022). An archetype for insurance thresholds for extreme natural events in the agricultural sector. Climate Risk Management, 100434.

Abstract

‏The use of insurance against disasters triggered by natural hazards has become a common mechanism in the agricultural sector. Typical insurance policies, including those in the agricultural sector, specify an event or threshold beyond which insured payments are triggered. However, there is an absence of studies situating agricultural insurance against natural disasters in the wider insurance framework or depicting the range and evolution of thresholds for extreme events in the agricultural sector. As a result, there is no conceptual framework for understanding how a threshold is selected in real life situations. This study comes to address this gap by developing an archetype for threshold selection under conditions of climate mitigation and adaptation uncertainty. To this end, the study first unpacks the concept of insurance thresholds and identifies its evolution over time as well as its main building blocks: insurance realm, primary thresholds, and risk indicators. It then assembles these building blocks into three generic trajectories (climate exposure, location exposure, and sensitivity), each driven by different external and internal variables. Finally, it lays the foundation for treating the topic of insurance threshold as a research agenda.

Webpage: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096322000419