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Lynn, B. H., Yair, Y., Price, C., Kelman, G., & Clark, A. J. (2012). Predicting cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning in weather forecast models. Weather and Forecasting, 27(6), 1470-1488.‏

 

Abstract:

A new prognostic, spatially and temporally dependent variable is introduced to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This variable is called the potential electrical energy (Ep). It was used to predict the dynamic contribution of the grid-scale-resolved microphysical and vertical velocity fields to the production of cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning in convection-allowing forecasts. The source of Ep is assumed to be the noninductive charge separation process involving collisions of graupel and ice particles in the presence of supercooled liquid water. The Ep dissipates when it exceeds preassigned threshold values and lightning is generated. An analysis of four case studies is presented and analyzed. On the 4-km simulation grid, a single cloud-to-ground lightning event was forecast with about equal values of probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR). However, when lighting was integrated onto 12-km and then 36-km grid overlays, there was a large improvement in the forecast skill, and as many as 10 cloud-to-ground lighting events were well forecast on the 36-km grid. The impact of initial conditions on forecast accuracy is briefly discussed, including an evaluation of the scheme in wintertime, when lightning activity is weaker. The dynamic algorithm forecasts are also contrasted with statistical lightning forecasts and differences are noted. The scheme is being used operationally with the Rapid Refresh (13 km) data; the skill scores in these operational runs were very good in clearly defined convective situations.

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Lynn, B. H., Kelman, G., & Ellrod, G. (2015). An evaluation of the efficacy of using observed lightning to improve convective lightning forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 30(2), 405-423.‏

 

Abstract:

Dynamic lightning forecasts [total and cloud to ground (CG)] were produced on a convection-allowing forecast grid with 4-km grid spacing with lightning assimilation (ASML) and without lightning assimilation [control (CNTL)]. A dynamic scheme produces time- and space-dependent potential electrical energy, which then converts this energy into lightning (e.g., number per hour per grid element). The assimilation scheme uses observed, gridded total lightning to determine how much water vapor is added at constant temperature in the mixed-phase region, leading to a convective response. ASML and CNTL lightning forecasts were compared to observed total and CG lightning. Four case studies—each representing a different type of convective regime—demonstrate that the spatial distribution and intensity of forecast lightning were improved when lightning assimilation was used. Over 3 days in March 2012, eight 18-h lightning forecasts quantified the advantages in forecast accuracy. Equitable threat scores for forecast CG lightning associated with strong [25 (3 h)−1], very strong [50 (3 h)−1], and extreme [100 (3 h)−1] events were significantly more accurate for convective storms that developed in forecasts with lightning assimilation than without. Improvements in forecasts of very strong and extreme events occurred out to 9 h of forecast time, while the forecasts of strong events showed improvement out to 15 h. Spurious convection was removed with filtering in one case study, which led to a notable improvement in the timing and intensity of the squall line. Sensitivity tests examined the utility of this filtering approach, and the importance of reducing mass imbalances liable to occur when too much water vapor mass is introduced into the model.

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Manso, M., & Manso, B. (2012). The Role of Social Media in Crisis: A European Holistic Approach to the Adoption of Online and Mobile Communications in Crisis Response and Search and Rescue Efforts, 17th ICCRTS Operationalizing C2 Agility, Washington, June 2012.‏

 

Abstract:

Worldwide crises recently prompted new attention to the role information communication technologies (ICT) play in SAR and crisis response efforts, due to the growing citizens' participation through online (social) media and mobile communications. Empowered by new communication media, such as mobile phones with cameras, text messaging and internet-based applications connecting to social media platforms, citizens are the in situ first sensors, but their added-value involvement in crisis response efforts is often disregarded by First Responders (FRs) and Public Protection and Disaster Relief (PPDR) organizations, whose traditional command and control models do not easily adapt to the new crises' trend of including a global, digitally enabled social arena, a condition that is further hampered by restrictive legal framework and privacy concerns. Founded in the analysis of several case studies, we present herein iSAR+, a holistic approach to the effective adoption of the new communication media in emergencies or crises by PPDRs and Citizens. The proposed approach shall enable the use of these technologies for a bi-directional provision, dissemination, sharing and retrieval of information between PPDR, FRs and citizens, with the later acting as strong enablers for the rapid generation of high levels of awareness and C2 agility, during and after crisis situations. Addressing a complex subject, the multi-dimensional nature of this approach considers the organizational, human, technological, legal and ethical aspects that entail the increasingly relevant role of new online and mobile media in crises.

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National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2018). Emergency Alert and Warning Systems: Current Knowledge and Future Research Directions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24935.

Abstract:

Following a series of natural disasters, including Hurricane Katrina, that revealed shortcomings in the nation’s ability to effectively alert populations at risk, Congress passed the Warning, Alert, and Response Network (WARN) Act in 2006. Today, new technologies such as smart phones and social media platforms offer new ways to communicate with the public, and the information ecosystem is much broader, including additional official channels, such as government social media accounts, opt-in short message service (SMS)-based alerting systems, and reverse 911 systems; less official channels, such as main stream media outlets and weather applications on connected devices; and unofficial channels, such as first person reports via social media. Traditional media have also taken advantage of these new tools, including their own mobile applications to extend their reach of beyond broadcast radio, television, and cable. Furthermore, private companies have begun to take advantage of the large amounts of data about users they possess to detect events and provide alerts and warnings and other hazard-related information to their users.

More than 60 years of research on the public response to alerts and warnings has yielded many insights about how people respond to information that they are at risk and the circumstances under which they are most likely to take appropriate protective action. Some, but not all, of these results have been used to inform the design and operation of alert and warning systems, and new insights continue to emerge. Emergency Alert and Warning Systems reviews the results of past research, considers new possibilities for realizing more effective alert and warning systems, explores how a more effective national alert and warning system might be created and some of the gaps in our present knowledge, and sets forth a research agenda to advance the nation’s alert and warning capabilities.

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National Research Council (2011). Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Summary of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/13076.

Abstract:

This book presents a summary of the Workshop on Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Current Knowledge and Research Gaps, held April 13 and 14, 2010, in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's Committee on Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Current Knowledge and Research Needs.

The workshop was structured to gather inputs and insights from social science researchers, technologists, emergency management professionals, and other experts knowledgeable about how the public responds to alerts and warnings, focusing specifically on how the public responds to mobile alerting.

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OECD (2018), Assessing the Real Cost of Disasters: The Need for Better Evidence, OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264298798-en.

 

Abstract:

Disasters disrupt socio-economic activities and cause substantial damage. Yet, their full economic impact remains largely unknown, especially the cost of smaller disasters and indirect impacts such as those due to business disruptions. Similarly, little information exists on the total amount of public resources that countries devote to disaster risk management. Reliable, comprehensive and comparable data on the economic impact of disasters as well as on public spending on disaster management and risk prevention are essential for developing effective disaster risk management policies. This report provides an overview of countries' efforts to improve the quality and quantity of information on the costs of disasters.

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Weiman G. and Terror and Media Desk (2019). Digital Terrorism in the Israeli Election Campaign? The Interference of Terrorist Organizations and State Sponsors of Terrorisam in the Election Campaign. ICT (International Institute for Counter-Terrorism)

Abstract:

Approximately two years ago, following clear evidence of Russian interference in the US presidential election campaign, the US administration announced to dozens of countries around the world that their election campaigns were a target for the "Russian government’s cyber activists”. There is no doubt that the Russians used online measures to interfere in the election campaigns of most Western countries, including the US, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Montenegro and more. 

In Israel, too, the fear of Russian interference in the upcoming election campaign has increased…

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Whitehouse R. (2017, Aug 24). Interview with ‘Virtual Terror’ Author Daniel Wagner. International Policy Digest. Retrieved from https://intpolicydigest.org/2017/08/24/interview-with-virtual-terror-author-daniel-wagner/

Abstract:

Daniel Wagner is the Founder of Country Risk Solutions and Managing Director of Risk Cooperative. He has three decades of experience managing cross-border risk, including 15 years of underwriting experience with AIG, GE, the Asian Development Bank, and World Bank Group. Daniel has lectured at more than 15 universities around the world, is a regular speaker at conferences, and a frequent commentator on global affairs in visual media.

He has authored four books – Virtual Terror, Global Risk Agility and Decision Making (co-authored), Managing Country Risk, and Political Risk Insurance Guide — and has published more than 500 articles on current affairs and risk management in a plethora of platforms.

Following the release of his latest book, Virtual Terror, I reached out to Wagner to talk about his book and cybersecurity in general. Our interview, conducted over email, has been edited for flow, is below.

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Wong-Parodi, G., Fischhoff, B., & Strauss, B. (2018). Effect of risk and protective decision aids on flood preparation in vulnerable communities. Weather, climate, and society, 10(3), 401-417.

Abstract:

Although the risks of flooding demand responses by communities and societies, there are also many cost-effective actions that individuals can take. The authors examine two potential determinants of such adoption: individual predisposition to act and the impact of decision aids that emphasize the risk, the actions, both, or neither (control). Respondents are a representative sample (N = 1201) of individuals in the areas most heavily affected by Superstorm Sandy in 2012. The authors find that, in the overall sample, seeing protective actions coupled with risk information or alone produced higher rates of individuals reporting that they intended to take action preparing for future storms, compared to a control group receiving no additional information. Moreover, that occurred despite the aids reducing their perceptions of risk. The authors find that individuals who reported having taken previous action are more responsive to decision aid messages with the exception of the combined message (risk and protective actions)—which had a positive effect on those who had not acted previously, but a negative effect on those who had. These results suggest that, in communities that already are aware of their flood risks, the critical need is for authoritative, comprehensible information regarding the most feasible and cost-effective protective actions that they can take. Providing such information requires analysis to determine which actions qualify and a design process that incorporates user feedback to ensure that recommendations are easily understood and credible.

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World Health Organization. (2015). Hospital safety index: Guide for Evaluators

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