Michal Shamai and Alisa C. Lewin
University of Haifa

Research funded by the Israel Ministry of Science and Technology

Goal: This study focuses on the way people living in poverty have coped with the challenges they encountered in face of the COVID 19 pandemic.  Four main areas were examined at two time points: 1) Emotional wellbeing, measured as levels of stress, anxiety, depression, and resilience. 2) Types of hardship and difficulties experienced (economic / social / family). 3) The specific need for services (welfare / health / education) and these services’ responsiveness (Social Security, Welfare, Health and Education Services). 4) Formal and informal sources of social support. In addition social workers from Departments of Social Services were asked how they perceived the pandemic’s impact on clients living in poverty.

People in Poverty

Method

Sample: Participants were recruited through departments of social services administration in the northern part of Israel. The first wave of data collection was carried out in May-June 2020, and included 88 participants.  This survey focused on  coping during the first lockdown. The second wave of data collection was carried out in August-September 2020, and included 82 participants (recruited from wave 1’s original sample).

Measurement Instrument: The questionnaire was delivered through telephone interviews. Most of the questions were identical in the two waves, to allow comparison and detect changes over time. The first questionnaire included the following topics: 1) Demographic information and background questions about work, income and hardships before the  pandemic and the lockdown. 2) Questions regarding work and income changes due to the pandemic and lockdown.  3) Types of  difficulties (financial / scial/ family) encountered during the lockdown. 4) Connection with formal and informal sources of support. 5) Type of help given by the Department of Social Services 6) Levels of stress (Anxiety and Depression) measured by BSI 7) Level of resilience, measured by CD-Risk 10 8) Levels of social support, measured by the Multidimensional Scale of Perceiver Social Support questionnaire (MSPSS). In the second wave we examined changes in all areas measured in the first wave.

Data Analysis: Data were analyzed using quantitative and qualitative (content analysis) methods. The quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics of each one of the waves and comparisons between the two waves. In addition, we conducted multivariate analyses to examine the effect of material hardship (and changes in material hardship) on stress, anxiety, depression, and resilience. The qualitative data consisted of participants’ comments throughout the interview and their responses to open questions in the survey. These data were examined using content analysis that identifies both common themes as well as unique responses.

Results

The findings show that people in poverty experienced increased hardships following the COVID 19 pandemic and the crisis it created. . These hardships affected multiple (if not all) life spheres: 1. Household expenses increased: a) Lockdown policy restricted most household members to stay at home most of the time, leading to increased household expenses. For example, children from economically distressed families, who are usually entitled to a warm lunch at school, had to eat all meals at home during lockdown, increasing food expenditures.   In addition, parents commented that on an increase in the amount of food eaten during lockdown, and the consequent increase in food expenditures.  This increased expenditure created a hardship for families living in poverty who typically live on strict and small budgets, with fewer reserves upon which to draw in times of crisis.   b) Staying at home also increased the use of electricity and subsequent expenses. c) Reductions in uses and trains sometimes forced people living in poverty to use taxis, which are a very expensive alternative to public transportation, thus increasing their transportation expenses.  2) Income declined: People living in poverty usually work in less protected sectors, in types of jobs  that do not enable online work or work from home.   Instead, many work in low-skilled jobs in places that cut hours or closed entirely due to lockdown.   Thus, many of the study’s participants were fired or sent on temporary unpaid leave of absence. The combination of declining incomes and increasing expenses created stress and increased material and emotional hardship. These hardships also led to difficulties with partners and conflicts about financial issues.  3) Difficulties with children: a) for long periods during COVID 19 pandemic, most children had to stay at home.  Homes are usually small and crowded, with little privacy. b)  Many families did not have computers or internet connection therefore their children could not participate in online learning. This situation improved by the second wave because many children received computers. c) Many parents felt they did not have the skills to help their children with distance learning because of their low levels of education, others did not have time, either because they were at work, or they had other children to help, or other household chores to complete. Needless to say, people in poverty cannot afford help from private tutors . d) Many parents felt they did not have the means to keep the children occupied during the long hours they were at home. They commented they did not have enough board games or electronic games for their children. e) Some participants reported that they had to leave very young children in the care of older siblings who were still young themselves, in order to go to work. f) Participants reported that many conflicts with partners were centered on raising the children during this difficult period. 4) Mental health: a) People in poverty have significantly higher level of stress, anxiety and depression and lower level of resilience than Israel’s general population. Anxiety levels among people in poverty declined in the second wave, whereas it increased in the general population, so that the difference between the two groups became non-significant by the second wave.  Levels of depression among people in poverty remained high and stable, but it increased in the general population, so here too there was no significant difference between the groups by wave 2.    In contrast to the convergence in levels of anxiety and depression, the difference in levels of resilience between the two populations remained statistically significant. b) Our multivariate analyses show that the number of material hardships increases stress, anxiety and depression in the first and second waves. Our findings also show that enduring material hardship (inability to pay household expenses before and after COVID 19) is associated with higher levels of stress, anxiety and depression and lower levels of resilience compared to people who are able to pay for expenses and to people whose ability to pay for expenses declined following COVID 19. 

5) Request for help: a) People in poverty request support from both formal and informal sources. The highest percentage of the participants reported the Departments of Social Service as their primary source of support. b) Most participants reported full or partial satisfaction from the social workers’ help, the level of satisfaction being higher in the first wave than the second. c) Most participants requested material help, such as, food, clothes for children, computers and more. d) Many participants expected social workers to initiate phone calls to inquire about material difficulties and their psychological needs. Many participants compared the first and second lockdowns, claiming there was substantial decline in social workers' help over time.   

Conclusions

 1) Contrary to the claim that people living in poverty were not harmed by the COVID 19 crisis because they subsist of welfare grants, our findings show that the crisis increased hardship and introduced new difficulties. a) We found that work activity and incomes declined.  b) We found strong evidence that material hardship increased due to COVID 19.   c) Crowded living conditions and lack of computers led to difficulties in online learning and to conflicts with the children and partners among people living in poverty. 2) People living in poverty depended on Social Services Departments and NGO's for fulfilling their basic needs since the pandemic started even more than before. 3) Many people of poverty also needed emotional support, and most of them received it from their social workers. 4) Material hardship has detrimental effects of emotional wellbeing, and enduring, long-term material hardship is more detrimental than recent material hardship. The group with the highest level of stress, anxiety and depression and lower level of resilience on average consisted of those who had difficulty meeting household expenses before the crisis and since its beginning. Thus, we conclude that the long term constant need to cope with material hardships results in mental burnout that  reduces the ability to cope with additional and unexpected challenges, such as those created by the pandemic.

Social Workers

Method

Sample: Our sample consists of 40 family social workers, mainly from the northern part of Israel.

Measurement Instrument: A survey that gathered information on the following topics: 1) Perceptions of clients in poverty before and during the pandemic. 2) Types of help that clients requested. 3) Contact with clients during first lockdown, between lockdowns. 4) Specific directives received from Department of Social Services regarding contact with clients during the COVID 19 crisis.

Data Collection: The social workers who agreed to take part in the study filled out the online questionnaire.

Data Analysis: Data analysis included descriptive statistics that were enriched by the responses to the open questions.

Results

 The social workers’ perceptions of clients’ needs, functioning, and emotional state was similar to those reported by the people in poverty.  Social workers reported that they got instructions to initiate phone calls to their clients in poverty (as most of the people in poverty reported). They also reported the challenges they encountered in their professional capacity due to the conditions created by the pandemic.  Social workers reported being overworked preparing food packages, as well as tending to their usual work.  In addition, social workers who were parents of young children experienced difficulty finding childcare solutions. 

Conclusions

 1) There is a need to repeat and clarify instructions and directives during long- term crisis situations. 2) There is a need to provide support and child-care to social workers during long-term crisis periods.   3) Low skill jobs (such as preparing food packages) can be transferred from trained social workers who have caseloads to deal with, to low skilled workers who need the income.

Implications and Practical Recommendation 

• People in poverty have higher expenses following COVID-19, both during and after the lockdowns. Since they lack financial reserves, they find themselves facing financial difficulties within a very short time, and most do not seem to recover. Therefore, it is important to develop policy that takes this situation into consideration, to which the provision of food is not a complete answer. A financial grant is needed for this population, of a sum that is high enough to help them realistically meet their own and their children’s needs and to prevent further financial deterioration.
• The high emotional stress presented by people in poverty must be considered, since the significant impact of stress goes beyond mental health, affecting physical health as well. Social workers require direction to initiate contact with their clients to provide constant support and guidance regarding various stress-inducing issues. Social workers succeeded in achieving this partly during the first lockdown, but less so between lockdowns and during the second lockdown.
• People in poverty cannot be considered as one homogeneous group. The group that could never pay household expenses were at the highest risk for mental health issues and thus needs special attention during crises. They have no financial reserves and they experience long-term, enduring material hardship, which is associated with negative emotional outcomes.
• Social workers need training programs in special telephone or online intervention techniques, especially for reducing anxiety and for increasing problem-solving and resilience. In addition, family social workers need to develop appropriate plans to help parents cope with their children in the specific pandemic-induced crisis. It is of paramount importance that the children of families in poverty will not be harmed in the long-term, and will be able to close the schooling gap created by the crisis and will be able to access higher education that can open opportunities to exit poverty.

Bibliographic details:

Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management - Ministry of Education National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Emergency Management Information institute of the Ministry of Emergency Management ֲ(2020) 2019 Global Natural Disaster Assessment Report.

Abstract:

This report systematically assessed the global natural disasters occurred in 2019 and over the last 30 years, and analyzed the ranking of China in Asia and worldwide, using Global Disaster Database (EM-DAT), China's disaster data, and data collected from the insurance industry.

The main conclusions had been drawn as follows (pp. 3-4):

1. In general, global natural disasters in 2019 were less severe;
2. The majority of global disasters in 2019 were caused by floods with smaller losses than the average for recent years;
3. 2019 witnessed only a few earthquakes, which was rare in recent years;
4. The impact of bush fires was substantial;
5. Developing countries account for a large share of the losses, with the United States and Japan showing significant losses;
6. China's natural disasters losses were light overall but still ranked high in the world.

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Bibliographic details:

Papadopoulos, G. A., Lekkas, E., Katsetsiadou, K. N., Rovythakis, E., & Yahav, A. (2020). Tsunami Alert Efficiency in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea: The 2 May 2020 Earthquake (Mw6. 6) and Near-Field Tsunami South of Crete (Greece). GeoHazards, 1(1), 44-60.

Abstract:

The Mediterranean tsunami warning system is based on national monitoring centers (Tsunami Service Providers, TSPs) and operates under the IOC/UNESCO umbrella. For the first time, we evaluate in-depth the system’s performance for improving its operational effectiveness in conditions of extremely narrow time frames due to the near-field tsunami sources. At time 10 (± 2) min from the origin time, to, of the 2 May 2020 (Mw6.6) earthquake in Crete, the Greek, Italian and Turkish TSPs sent alerts to civil protection subscribers. A small tsunami (amplitude ~16 cm a.m.s.l.) of magnitude Mt6.8, arriving at south Crete in ~17 min from to, was documented from tide-gauge records and macroscopic observations. The analysis of the upstream alert messages showed that the tsunami alert efficiency is not adequate, since (1) earthquake parameters of low accuracy were used for the initial message, (2) alerts were issued after some forecasted wave arrival times had expired, (3) alert messages are characterized by various discrepancies and uncertainties. Our calculations showed that the upstream component improves if the alert time is shortened by a few minutes and the initial earthquake parameters are more accurate. Very late procedures were noted in the Greek civil protection downstream component, thus rendering response actions useless. In Israel, a bit more time was available to the authorities for decision making. A drastic improvement of the downstream component is needed to achieve timely alerting for local authorities and communities.

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Bibliographic details:

Yagoub, M. M. (2015). Spatio-temporal and hazard mapping of Earthquake in UAE (1984–2012): Remote sensing and GIS application. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 2(1), 13.

Abstract:

This study investigates the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake events taking place in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its effect on the population. In this study seven parameters are used for generation of a hazard map; this includes geology, soil, slope, land use, historical earthquake events, fault line, and roads. GIS weighted overlay analysis is used to demarcate the earthquake risk zones.

Analyzing data from 1984 to 2012 showed that during the period of 28 years there were frequent earthquakes that occurred with intensity ranges from mild to moderate with the maximum magnitude of 5.1. Spatially, earthquake events were found clustered in the Emirate of Fujairah in the Eastern part of UAE (Oman Thrust). Even the magnitude of the earthquakes is low, the frequency of being increased in the past few years coupled with urban development are point of concern and it becomes necessary to develop preventive measures such as hazard maps for the area.

The resulting map prepared is expected to increase the awareness for disaster prevention at the time of need and will help in the systematic and proper development of land use for community planning and mitigation policy.

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Bibliographic details:

Schwartz Pourrabbani Marla (2020). 15 years after Katrina: The tale of a changing risk landscape. Swiss Reinsurance Company

Abstract:

Though New Orleans’ hurricane exposure and vulnerability have changed since Katrina, hurricane wind and storm surge continue to present a key risk to the Gulf Coast region, despite extensive mitigation efforts. Reviews of historical natural hazards, such as this one, are crucial for understanding today’s risk and for validating probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling and related assessments.

The sample scenarios in this report illustrate how the risk landscape has changed in the last 15 years due to changing hazard, exposure and protection factors. It is crucial to consider such factors when evaluating the current risk landscape or in any modelling exercise at the local level. Additionally, the scenarios here demonstrate the effectiveness of natural-hazard mitigation efforts and flood defences, as well as the role of re/insurance in enabling resilience.

From the article:

If Hurricane Katrina were to hit the US in 2020 with the same wind and storm surge as 2005, but with current exposure information and updated flood protection and vulnerability assumptions, the privately insured losses in the US alone could rise to 60bn (excluding offshore losses in the Gulf of Mexico or losses to the NFIP). This is true, despite the city currently only having 80% of the population it did in 2005. The total economic toll from such an event could likely exceed USD 175bn. These figures illustrate that despite New Orleans’ lower population and strengthened flood protection system, economic losses from natural hazards like Katrina are expected to continue to increase.

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Bibliographic details:

Felsenstein, D., Elbaum, E., Levi, T., & Calvo, R. (2020). Post-processing HAZUS earthquake damage and loss assessments for individual buildings. Natural Hazards, 1-25.

Abstract:

Building damage probabilities are invaluable for assessing short-term losses from natural hazards. In many countries however, the individual building level data required for assessing reliable damage are usually unavailable. This paper shows how the post-processing of aggregate HAZUS earthquake damage assessments can yield building-level damage probabilities. On the basis of three plausible scenarios for Northern Israel, we generate and visualize a building-level combined damage probability index. We use the tools of exploratory spatial data analysis to purge any causal influences in the spatial pattern of these calculated damage probabilities. The costs and benefits of our approach are discussed.

Link to paper: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04293-1

Webpage: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-020-04293-1

Bibliographic details:

Fischer, I., Avrashi, S., Oz, T., Fadul, R., Gutman, K., Rubenstein, D., Kroliczak, G., Goerg, S. and Glöckner, A. (2020). The behavioural challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic: indirect measurements and personalized attitude changing treatments (IMPACT). Royal Society Open Science, 7(8), 201131.

Abstract:

Following the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the globe coerced their citizens to adhere to preventive health behaviours, aiming to reduce the effective reproduction numbers of the virus. Driven by game theoretic considerations and inspired by the work of US National Research Council’s Committee on Food Habits (1943) during WWII, and the postWWII Yale Communication Research Program, the present research shows how to achieve enhanced adherence to health regulations without coercion. To this aim, we combine three elements: (i) indirect measurements, (ii) personalized interventions, and (iii) attitude changing treatments (IMPACT). We find that a cluster of short interventions, such as elaboration on possible consequences, induction of cognitive dissonance, addressing next of kin and similar others and receiving advice following severity judgements, improves individuals’ healthpreserving attitudes. We propose extending the use of IMPACT under closure periods and during the resumption of social and economic activities under COVID-19 pandemic, since efficient and lasting adherence should rely on personal attitudes rather than on coercion alone. Finally, we point to the opportunity of international cooperation generated by the pandemic

Link to paper: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.201131

מחקר בהתהוות

ד"ר אדר בן-אליהו וליהי צרפתי, החוג לייעוץ והתפתחות האדם - אוניברסיטת חיפה

מחקר זה חקר את היחסים בין תהליכי- מטא ויכולת ויסות עצמי בלמידה של אימהות לבין ויסות עצמי בלמידה של ילדיהם בכיתות א-ג. המחקר מבוסס על התפיסה כי תהליכי-מטא וויסות עצמי הם בסיס לחוסן נפשי ולגמישות אשר מהווים גורמי חוסן הכרחיים במיוחד כאשר מתמודדים עם מצבי חיים שדורשים הסתגלות רבה, בדומה לאלה הפוקדים את העולם בעקבות מגפת נגיף הקורונה COVID19 . בנוסף, בחנו את הדינמיקה בין אם לילד בעת למידה מתוך הסתכלות על האופן שבו האם תומכת בלמידה, דרך עידוד חשיבה (ויסות הדדי) או על ידי מתן הוראות (ויסות אחר).

נתוני המחקר בוחנים שלוש תקופות זמן: מאי 2019 (טרום קורונה), אפריל 2020 (סגר ראשון - למידה מרחוק) ויוני 2020 (לאחר חזרה לבית הספר "שגרת קורונה"). מניתוחים ראשוניים עולה כי למידה מרחוק מייצרת דינמיקה שונה במקצת בין ההורים לילדיהם. יש דמיון בין תקופת טרום קורונה לשגרת קורונה יותר מאשר לתקופת הסגר בלמידה מרחוק.

ממצאים עיקריים מצביעים על כך שיש יותר מעורבות הורית במהלך שגרת הקורונה, לכן נמצאו יותר קשרים ביוני 2020 לעומת מאי 2019. לדוגמא, בעוד שבמהלך כל תקופות המחקר ויסות רגשי של ההורה מסוג של הדחקת רגשות היה בקשר חיובי עם הדחקת רגשות אצל הילד, ביוני 2020 גם ויסות קוגניטיבי של ההורה ניבא את השימוש בהדחקת רגשות אצל הילד. באופן דומה, בעוד שהערכה מחדש של האם כוויסות רגשי ניבא את השימוש בהערכה מחדש ואת התכנון (ויסות התנהגות) אצל הילד במהלך טרום קורונה ובשגרת קורונה, ביוני 2020 גם ויסות התנהגות (תכנון) של ההורה היה בקשר חיובי עם ויסות התנהגותי (תכנון) של הילד. הממצאים מצביעים על כך שמלבד הערכה מחדש (ויסות רגשי), יכולות הוויסות של ההורה לא נמצאו כמנבאים את יכולותיהם של ילדיהם במהלך הסגר הראשון (אפריל 2020).

לגבי הידע שיש לאמהות אודות תהליכים פנימיים כגון רגש, קוגניציה והתנהגות, נמצא שבעוד שבטרום הקורונה מטא-רגש ומטא-התנהגות היו בקשר חיובי עם ויסות רגשי של הילד מסוג של הערכה מחדש, בזמן הקורונה (אפריל 2020) מטא-התנהגות נמצא כמנבא הערכה מחדש וויסות התנהגות (תכנון). זאת לעומת שגרת הקורונה (יוני 2020), במהלכה רק מטא-רגש ניבא הערכה מחדש וויסות התנהגות. ממצא מעניין נוסף הוא שמטא-רגש של האם היה בקשר שלילי עם ויסות קוגניטיבי של הילד במהלך הלמידה מרחוק בלבד (אפריל 2020), אך במהלך הסגר ולאחריו מטא-רגש היה בקשר חיובי עם שימוש בהדחקה (ויסות רגשי) של הילד ומטא-קוגניציה בקשר שלילי עם שימוש בהדחקה.

בהסתכלות קרובה יותר על הדינמיקה בין אם-ילד, ויסות הדדי היה בקשר חיובי עם ויסות רגשי מסוג של הערכה מחדש ותכנון של הילד לאורך כל תקופות המחקר, אך ניבא הצלחה בחשבון רק במהלך הסגר ולאחריו. בעוד שוויסות אחר (מתן הוראות לילד) היה בקשר שלילי עם הישגים בחשבון ובקשר חיובי עם ויסות קשבי של הילד, כלומר, הילד נדרש ליותר הוראות לווסת את הקשב, אך פחות הוראות מהאם ניבאו את הישגיו בחשבון וגם את השימוש בתכנון (ויסות התנהגות), ויסות הדדי היה בקשר חיובי עם הישגים בחשבון אך בקשר שלילי עם ויסות קשבי של הילד. כאשר שאלנו אמהות לגבי הרגש שלהן במהלך הסגר ובתקופת שגרת הקורונה, מצאנו שבעוד שלא היו הבדלים בחוויית הרגש השלילי בין שתי התקופות, הרגש החיובי עלה כאשר הילדים חזרו לבית הספר לאחר הסגר (יוני 2020).

On-Going research

Dr. Adar Ben-Eliyahu & Lihi Sarfaty, Department of Counseling and Human Development – University of Haifa

This study investigated the relations of parental meta-processes and self-regulated learning to their children’s self-regulated learning. The study is based on the notion that meta-processes and self-regulation are a core essence of resilience and crucial protective factors especially when coping with maladaptive living situations, such as that imposed COVID-19 pandemic. Meta-processes have been mainly investigated as knowledge and understanding of cognitive processes in the form of metacognition (Flavel, 1979), though recently these processes have been defined as pertaining to behavioral outcomes -metabehavior (Ben-Eliyahu, 2019) and emotional - metaemotion (also see Norman & Furnes, 2016). Although parental processes and beliefs have been found to be related to their children’s, there is not much work on how parents’ self-regulated learning and meta-processes are related to their children’s self-regulated learning. This study investigated the relations of these parental processes as well as the dynamic of regulation as they relate to their children’s learning.
The data includes three different times: May 2019 (pre-corona), April 2020 (first lockdown – distance learning), and June 2020 (regular at school learning after lockdown – “Corona routine”). Our preliminary analyses suggest that at home distance learning elicits slightly different dynamics between parents and their children that is captured by nuanced processes. Main findings suggest that there was more parental involvement with returning to the Corona routine as more associations were found between maternal processes to her child in June 2020 compared to May 2019. For example, across all times parental emotion regulation of suppression was positively associated with child suppression, in addition in June 2020 mother’s cognitive regulation predicted the use of child’s suppression. Similarly, while reappraisal emotion regulation predicted the use of reappraisal and planning (behavioral regulation) at school learning (May 2019 & June 2020), in June 2020 parent's behavioral regulation (planning) was also positively associated with the child's behavioral regulation. The findings suggest that during the first lockdown (April 2020), apart from reappraisal (emotional regulation), parent's self-regulation were not associated with their children's self-regulation.
Regarding mothers' knowledge of internal processes such as emotion, cognition and behavior, whereas pre-corona meta-emotion and meta-behavior was positively associated with child’s emotion regulation of reappraisal, Corona lockdown meta-behavior was also found to predict behavioral regulation (planning). This is in contrast to Corona routine (June 2020) in which only meta-emotion predicted reappraisal and behavior regulation. An interesting finding is that mother’s meta-emotion was negatively associated with the child's cognitive regulation only during distance learning (April 2020), but during and after lockdown meta-emotion was positively associated while meta-cognition was negatively associated with the use of suppression emotion regulation.
In looking at parent-child dynamics, co-regulation was positively associated with emotion regulation reappraisal and planning at all times, but predicted math success only during and after the lockdown. While other regulation - giving instructions to the child was negatively related to math achievements and was positively associated with child's attentional regulation. That is, the child is required to have more instructions to regulate attention, but less instruction by the mother predicted math achievement and planning (behavioral regulation). This is in contrast to co-regulation which was positively associated with math achievements but negatively associated with child's attentional regulation. When we asked the mothers about their emotions during the lockdown and Corona routine, we found that while there were no differences in reported negative emotions between the two periods, positive emotion (happy, relaxed, enthusiastic) increased when the children returned to school after lockdown (June 2020).

Bibliographic details:

Ben-Haim, Y. (2019). Cascading failures in hierarchical networks with unity of command: An info-gap analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 41, 101291.

Abstract:

Cascading failures occur in networks of interacting agents in which failure at one node can cause further failures. We define the ‘degree of cascading failure’ as the fraction of nodes that could fail as a result of one single failure. This refers to the possibility of failure, and thus involves the uncertainty of failures. We emphasize vulnerability to uncertainty, and employ the concept of robustness as developed in info-gap theory, to study uncertain cascading failures. We study hierarchical networks with unity of command, which means that each node in the hierarchy receives a message from at most one other node. Our concern is in designing the network to adequately manage cascading failures. We explore a situation where the decision maker must choose between design alternatives that entail a dilemma: choose the putatively better but more uncertain option, or choose the putatively worse but more reliable one? The info-gap robustness analysis offers a resolution of this dilemma. This analysis underlies a critique of conventional optimization in which one uses the best data, knowledge and understanding to prioritize the decision alternatives based on predicted outcomes.

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