Bibliographic details:

Felsenstein, D., Shmueli, D. F., & Thomas, D. S. (2020). Introduction to the Special Issue: Cascading Effects in Disaster Risk Management Cascades-Mapping the Multi-Disciplinary Landscape in a Post-Pandemic World. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 101842.

Abstract:

The contributions to this special issue originate from the scientific workshop on the topic of Cascading Disasters: Theory, Methods, and Empirics held at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, in November 2018. This meeting was jointly sponsored by the Israeli National Knowledge and Research Center for Emergency Readiness, and the DIM2SEA research project at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. It brought together leading experts from the fields of industrial management, physics, civil engineering, geography and environmental studies, transportation, urban planning, medicine and  public health, public policy and management, and socio-economic modeling.

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Felsenstein, D., & Grinberger, A. Y. (2020). Cascading effects of a disaster on the labor market over the medium to long term. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 47, 101524.

Abstract:

We present an economic definition of cascading effects of a disaster on the labor market over the medium to long term. Cascading effects are considered events that alter local amenities. In the context of the labor market, the standard conception of a cascade as a sequence of events that alter the capital stock, may not be very instructive as the immediate time horizon is not the relevant economic timeframe. We outline some of the theoretical implications arising from this definition and give them some intuition based on an agent based simulation model. The model is used to simulate two cascade-type scenarios following an earthquake in the city of Jerusalem. Results indicate that a strong cascading effect in the labor market depends on serious functional change in the physical environment i.e. land-use change. Flow-related changes in labor and population movement are less likely to create effects that cascade into other sub-markets. Implications of these findings point to the key role of labor mobility as workers seek solutions outside the area struck by disaster.

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Felsenstein, D., Shmueli, D. F., & Thomas, D. S. (2020). Cascades-Mapping the multi-disciplinary landscape in a post-pandemic world. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51, 101842.

Abstract:

This paper introduces the Special Issue on Cascading Effects in Disaster Risk Management. It reviews the contributions and highlights their multi-disciplinary interpretations of cascades. It proceeds to discuss whether the on-going unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the cascades metaphor.

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Li, J., Wang, Y., Huang, S., Xie, J., Shekhtman, L., Hu, Y., & Havlin, S. (2019). Recent progress on cascading failures and recovery in interdependent networks. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 40, 101266.

Abstract:

Complex networks have gained much attention in the past 20 years, with thousands of publications due to their broad interest and applicability. Studies initially focused on the functionality of isolated single networks. However, crucial communication systems, infrastructure networks and others are usually coupled together and can be modeled as interdependent networks, hence, since 2010 the focus has shifted to the study of the more general and realistic case of coupled networks, called Networks of Networks (NON). Due to interdependencies between the networks, NON can suffer from cascading failures leading to abrupt catastrophic collapse. In this review, using the perspective of statistical physics and network science, we will mainly discuss recent progress in understanding the robustness of NON having cascading failures features that are realistic for infrastructure networks. We also discuss in this review strategies of protecting and repairing NON.

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Menoni, S., & Boni, M. P. (2020). A systemic approach for dealing with chained damages triggered by natural hazards in complex human settlements. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51

Abstract:

Introduction:

Events entailing multiple phenomena co-occurring at the same time or triggering one another have long been considered the exception rather than the rule. More recently, increased attention has been paid to hazards that are clustered in time and space. This can be explained by the fact that such events have become more frequent. However, it may well be the result of a different approach taken by researchers and practitioners that are looking at disasters through new lenses. Hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions intrinsically entail a variety of associated phenomena; there is no doubt that climate change is modifying the pattern of hazards that depend on meteorological factors, such as storms or floods and is creating unprecedented threats in some regions (eg. Typhoons in the Mediterranean regions and hurricanes far away from the Atlantic belt). On the other hand, the increased complexity of cities and human settlements have made na-techs more frequent than was the case in the early Nineties [1], when the term was introduced for the first time on the basis of an in depth investigation of technological accidents that had occurred in the USA in the previous decade. Enchained, domino and cascading damages are attributes that have been often associated to multiple hazards, natural or man-made, triggered by one another or co-occurring within a short time span. However, they are still in search of a consensual definition to frame theoretical and practical approaches that are required for effective mitigation measures. In the present article such an approach is proposed grounded on two main pillars. On the one hand we aim to understand cascading events as resulting from the chain of different damages and failures that may occur either in association or triggered by one another. On the other hand we consider the complexity of different types of human settlements, showing the variation in types of settlements that can be equally prone to severe enchained affects. Based on literature and past projects, an interpretation of domino and cascading effects as a chain of subsequent damages and losses due to risk factors differentially associated with individual scenarios, is proposed in section 2. Then a typology of settlements and urban environments is discussed in section 3. Section 4 presents a methodology that has been developed in order to reconstruct the chained scenario of damage and losses in different types of urban environments making extensive use of empirical evidence extracted from post disaster reporting. The methodology is then applied to three case studies that are representative of distinct types of settlements in section 5. Section 6 summarizes the main results of the analysis and sets the stage for future research.

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Mizrahi, S. (2020). Cascading disasters, information cascades and continuous time models of domino effects. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 101672.

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This paper develops a framework for analyzing the dynamics through which cascading disasters evolve, spread and come to control in situations of uncertainty and vulnerability. The framework first establishes the idea that disasters are inherently a social phenomenon rooted in the social structure and reflects the processes of social change. The core of such social structures and processes is the mechanism of collective action. We then explain the ways in which formal mathematical models in general, and game theoretical models in particular, can help analyze the dynamics of collective action, detect the core parameters through which they evolve and, in particular, identify the interactions between these parameters. We show that these dynamics may have different forms of development, which are usually non-linear and cyclic. The framework also emphasizes the major role of information and social learning in these dynamics.

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Rey, D., & Bar-Gera, H. (2020). Long-term scheduling for road network disaster recovery. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 42, 101353.

Abstract:

In this paper, we address the problem of scheduling reconstruction efforts in a transport network struck by a disaster. The recovery of the road network is assumed to require a substantial amount of resources, e.g. budget, working crew, equipment; which are limited in availability. We assume that the recovery of the road network will take place over a pre-defined planning horizon divided into time periods. Further, we assume that the time periods are long enough so that travelers have the time to adjust their route choice preferences. We formulate this network recovery problem as a bilevel optimization problem wherein travelers are assumed to behave under user equilibrium conditions. We propose an exact enumerative approach that builds on prior work and requires the solution of an exponential number of traffic equilibrium problems, as well as three heuristics that are employed from the scheduling literature. Numerical experiments are designed on a realistic transport network wherein two disaster scenarios are considered. Both disaster scenarios aim to represent the possible damage caused by disasters that exhibit a fault-line topology, such as earthquakes. The numerical results obtained highlight the performance of the proposed heuristics for the bilevel network recovery scheduling problem at hand, but also reveal that these methods may fall short of optimal solutions when the amount of recovery resources is low compared to the demand of recovery projects.

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Thomas, D. S., Jang, S., & Scandlyn, J. (2020). The CHASMS conceptual model of cascading disasters and social vulnerability: The COVID-19 case example. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 101828.

Abstract:

Complex environmental, economic, and social conditions in the places we live provide strong cues to our longevity, livelihood, and well-being. Although often distinct and evolving relatively independently, health disparity, social vulnerability and environmental justice research and practice intertwine and inform one another. Together, they increasingly provide evidence of how social processes intensify disasters almost predictably giving rise to inequitable disruptions and consequences. The domino and cumulative effects of cascading disasters invariably reveal inequities through differential impacts and recovery opportunities across communities and subgroups of people. Not only do cascading disasters reveal and produce inequitable effects, the cascade itself can emerge out of compounded nested social structures. Drawing on, and integrating, theory and practice from social vulnerability, health inequity, and environmental justice, this paper presents a comprehensive conceptual model of cascading disasters that offers a people-centric lens. The CHASMS conceptual model (Cascading Hazards to disAsters that are Socially constructed eMerging out of Social Vulnerability) interrogates the tension between local communities and the larger structural forces that produce social inequities at multiple levels, capturing how those inequities lead to cascading disasters. We apply the model to COVID-19 as an illustration of how underlying inequities give rise to foreseeable inequitable outcomes, emphasizing the U.S. experience. We offer Kenya and Puerto Rico as examples of cumulative effects and possible cascades when responding to other events in the shadow of COVID-19.

COVID-19 has vividly exposed the dynamic, complex, and intense relevance of placing social conditions and structures at the forefront of cascading disaster inquiry and practice. The intensity of social disruption and the continuation of the pandemic will, no doubt, perpetuate and magnify chasms of injustice.

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Perry, R. (2020). Who Should Be Liable for the COVID-19 Pandemic?  Harvard Journal on Legislation, Forthcoming

Abstract:

The Article systematically and critically evaluates the potential liability of various “suspects” for the physical, emotional, and economic losses arising from the COVID-19 pandemic: the country-of-origin (the People’s Republic of China), international organizations (particularly the World Health Organization), federal, state, and local governments and officers, businesses, and healthcare providers. It concludes that existing legal frameworks fail to provide an appropriate solution for victims, primarily because each of the potential defendants can easily evade liability. The Article then proposes a new hybrid (international-domestic) regime, inspired by the international framework for the compensation of victims of nuclear incidents and by the September 11th Victim Compensation Fund.

Webpage: SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3697283 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3697283

Special issue of International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction: Cascading Effects in Disaster Risk Science: Multi-Disciplinary Perspectives.
Edited by Daniel Felsenstein, Deborah Shmueli, Deborah Thomas
Published September 2020

https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-disaster-risk-reduction/special-issue/1064X6F6R2K