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Thurber, C. H. (1996). Creep events preceding small to moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. Nature, 380(6573), 425.

Abstract:

The San Andreas fault in central California is unusual in that much of the fault displacement occurs as aseismic slip, also known as creep. Changes in creep have been suggested as a possible earthquake precursor^1–6, but clear associations between creep changes and subsequent earthquakes are uncommon. Here I report a test of the hypothesis that episodes of rapid creep ('creep events'^1–3) precede small to moderate earthquakes on the creeping portion of the San Andreas. The test consists of a comparison of archival creep data to the earthquake catalogue for this area, and an earthquake prediction experiment. Between 1970 and 1994, creep events occurred in the five days preceding half or more of the earthquakes of magnitude > 3.3 in three 1-yr periods of above-average seismic activity. Of five predictions based on the occurrence of creep events between October 1995 and mid-January 1996, four were fulfilled; there were also two 'misses' (earthquakes not preceded by a creep event). If the relationship reported here holds for the entire creeping segment of the San Andreas, and applies to larger earthquakes, these results suggest that a prediction based on precursory creep may be possible at Parkfield, California.

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Allen, R. M., Baer, G., Clinton, J., Hamiel, Y., Hofstetter, R., Pinsky, V., ... & Zollo, A. (2012). Earthquake early warning for Israel: Recommended implementation strategy. Isr. Geol. Surv. Rep.

Abstract:

ועדת השרים להיערכות לרעידות אדמה החליטה , בישיבתה ביום 7 ביוני 2012 , על הקמת מערכת התרעה קצרת מועד לרעידות אדמה בישראל. המשימה הוטלה על מינהל המחקר למדעי האדמה והים שבמשרד האנרגיה והמים . בעקבות ההחלטה הקים המינהל ועדת מומחים בינלאומית שמטרתה לייעץ למינהל ולהמליץ על המערכת האופטימלית שתענה על צרכי המדינה ותוקם במידת האפשר בפרק הזמן ובגבולות התקציב עליה החליטה הממשלה. הועדה כללה שלושה סיסמולוגים מחו"ל בעלי שם וניסיון בהקמת מערכות התרעה לרעידות אדמה, וחמישה סיסמולוגים וגיאופיסיקאים מישראל המתמחים בחקר רעידות אדמה,  ובחנה גישות וחלופות שונות להקמת המערכת, מבחינת צרכני ההתרעה, אלגוריתם ההתרעה, פיזור גיאוגרפי של המערכת, וסוגי המכשירים הנדרשים .

The purpose of this report is to recommend an optimal design and implementation plan for an earthquake early warning system in Israel. The goal of the project is to provide earthquake warning to schools around the nation within 2 years of project commencement, and extend the warning nationwide beyond a period of 3 years. This recommendation was prepared by an international advisory committee on Earthquake Early Warning that was formed by the Earth and Marine Research Administration (EMRA), Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of Israel and assembled in Jerusalem from September 9th to 14th, 2012.

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Kafle, H. K., & Bruins, H. J. (2009). Climatic trends in Israel 1970–2002: warmer and increasing aridity inland. Climatic Change, 96(1-2), 63-77.

Abstract:

Climatic trends in Israel during the period 1970–2002 were studied in detail on the basis of three parameters: average annual temperature, annual precipitation and the annual aridity (humidity) index P/PET (P = Precipitation; PET = Potential Evapotranspiration). Significant warming is evident in all 12 evaluated meteorological stations, situated in different parts of Israel. Along the Mediterranean coast, the average annual precipitation and P/PET values remained more or less at the same level. However, more inland, both eastward and southward, precipitation and P/PET trends are declining, indicating increased aridity. Eilat, Beer Sheva and Sedom Pans, situated in the desert, showed the most significant increase in aridity among the 12 meteorological stations we investigated. The relationship between changes in temperature and precipitation showed a negative correlation in all cases except for Eilat, the southernmost and driest part of Israel. The negative correlations for Negba, Kefar Blum, Har Kena’an, Beer Sheva and Sedom Pans are statistically significant. In conclusion, the climate in Israel has become more arid in most regions, except for the coastal plain.

Bibliographic details: (APA)

Helsloot, I., & Rosenthal, U. (Eds.) (2009). Mega-crisis in the 21st century. (Magazine National Safety & Security and Crisis Management). Magazine National Safety & Security and Crisis Management: special issue.

Abstract:

The threats we face today are more numerous, more substantial and more complex than ever before. Threats of large-scale violence, such as terrorism and confl icts within and between fragile states augmented by new risks and crises (aff ecting our communications and information technology, food production, new viruses etc.). In comparison with the kinds of disaster we experienced in the past, today’s misfortunes seem to elicit an unprecedented level of uncertainty and an urgent need for government intervention. This calls for policy that is focused on managing these threats to our national security.

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Inbar, M. O. S. H. E., & Bruins, H. J. (2004). Environmental impact of multi‐annual drought in the Jordan Kinneret watershed, Israel. Land Degradation & Development, 15(3), 243-256.

Abstract:

Floods and droughts are the most common of natural disasters, and the number of victims and the economic damage are both greater than those caused by other events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The drought that affected Israel between 1998 and 2001 was of unusual climatic and hydrologic severity; the most serious in the last 125 years in northern Israel. The climatic drought affected the water flow of the Jordan River and the level of Lake Kinneret, which fell to −214·90 m (below sea‐level), the lowest lake level in historical periods. The annual flow of the Jordan River in the drought period was the lowest in the 50‐year hydrological record.

Human interference, water pumping and flow diversion, exacerbated the negative drought impact, causing land degradation such as the drying of wetlands and salinization of freshwater aquifers. The failure to introduce drought contingency planning and sustainable water resources management has so far affected agriculture and nature conservation.

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Bruins, H. J., & Lithwick, H. (1998). Proactive planning and interactive management in arid frontier development. In The arid frontier (pp. 3-29). Springer, Dordrecht.

Abstract:

Deserts and drylands constitute about one-third of the terrestrial surface of the Earth. Nearly half the nations of the world have to cope, at least in part of their territory, with the constraining factors of aridity. Dryness negatively affects local availability of the most basic requirements for sustained human existence: water and food. A deeper understanding of these difficulties, as well as ways to alleviate them, is therefore of great importance to humanity, concerned as it is with environmental, social, political and economic development. It is possible to gain important insights into the problems of development in drylands by examining areas of transition, stress, and conflict. Such arid frontiers in the wide sense are the central focus of this volume.

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Bruins, H. J., & Bu, F. (2006). Food security in China and contingency planning: the significance of grain reserves. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 14(3), 114-124.

Abstract:

China is inhabited by ca 20 percent of the world population, but has only 7 percent of global arable land and only 6.6 percent of global freshwater resources. These unfavourable relationships between population size and the basic resources for food production – soil and water – require careful food security and contingency planning by the Chinese authorities. The country has been remarkably successful in raising its food production since 1949 at a faster rate (400 percent) than the increase in its population (240 percent). This has basically been achieved by increasing the yields per unit area with enhanced fertilizer use, as the total size of arable land has been decreasing in recent years. Though China attempts to be largely self‐sufficient in food grain production, two possible contingency scenarios are suggested that might cause grave problems: (1) severe multi‐annual drought; (2) reduced chemical fertilizer manufacturing. If Chinese food production would drop as a result by, say, 33 percent, famine, the dreaded scourge throughout Chinese history, might recur. A shortage of ca 150 million tons of food grains cannot easily be buffered by the volume of food grains annually traded on the world market, ca 240 million tons. Much of this amount tends to be committed already to traditional buyers, as most countries in the world have to import food grains. Cash reserves, therefore, may not guarantee food purchases, because global grain reserves are limited and declining. The formation and maintenance of large internal food grain reserves in China, common in its tradition and ancient history, seem the only realistic contingency planning strategy to avert famine in case of a severe decline in its food production in future crisis years.

Bibliographic details: (APA)

Bruins, H. J., & Lithwick, H. (Eds.). (2012). The arid frontier: Interactive management of environment and development (Vol. 41). Springer Science & Business Media.

Abstract:

The arid frontier has been a challenge for humanity from time immemorial. Drylands cover more than one-third of the global land surface, distributed over Africa, Asia, Australia, America and Southern Europe. Disasters may develop as a result of complex interactions between drought, desertification and society. Therefore, proactive planning and interactive management, including disaster-coping strategies, are essential in dealing with arid-frontier development.
This book presents a conceptual framework with case studies in dryland development and management. The option of a rational and ethical discourse for development that is beneficial for both the environment and society is emphasized, avoiding extreme environmentalism and human destructionism, combating both desertification and human livelihood insecurity. Such development has to be based on appropriate ethics, legislation, policy, proactive planning and interactive management. Excellent scholars address these issues, focusing on the principal interactions between people and dryland environments in terms of drought, food, land, water, renewable energy and housing.
Audience: This volume will be of great value to all those interested in Dryland Development and Management: professionals and policy-makers in governmental, international and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), as well as researchers, lecturers and students in Geography, Environmental Management, Regional Studies, Development Anthropology, Hazard and Disaster Management, Agriculture and Pastoralism, Land and Water Use, African Studies, and Renewable Energy Resources.

Bibliographic details: (APA)

Bruins, H. J. (2012). Risks to food security: Contingency planning for agri-mega-crises. Mega-crises: Understanding the prospects, nature, characteristics, and the effects of cataclysmic events, 342-355.

Abstract:

Cereal grains constitute the most important part of our daily food-the staff of life since times immemorial. However, the current situation of food grain production in the world is dangerously imbalanced in both spatial and import-export terms, which is neither sufficiently comprehended nor seriously addressed by national governments. The global food infrastructure is complex and nontransparent. Most countries were basically self-sufficient in food grain production in the first half of the twentieth century. Currently there are about 105 nations including The Netherlands, which are permanently dependent on imports to have enough basic food for their citizens and for livestock production. On the other hand, there are only 5 countries that produce cereal grains significantly beyond their own internal requirements: United States, France, Argentina, Australia, and Canada. Significant food reserves do not exist in the world. Severe droughts in China, India, the United States, as well as other hazards, are likely to cause severe global grain yield reductions at some time in the future. Then the global demand for food imports will exceed the volume of food grains available on the world market. Very steep price rises and food shortages may lead even to large-scale famine. Financial reserves do not guarantee food grain imports and cannot prevent a mega-food crisis. All the 105 countries requiring permanent food grain imports are at risk, including Middle Eastern nations such as Israel, Jordan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, contingency planning is needed to establish significant food grain reserves by governments and private sectors. The number of farmers is declining sharply in many countries. Nations should safeguard the farming sector, reserve sufficient arable land and develop contingency planning to have the ability to shift local agriculture from flowers and nonessential products to basic food grain production in future crises years.

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Bruins, H. J. (2000). Proactive contingency planning vis‐à‐vis declining water security in the 21st century. Journal of contingencies and crisis management, 8(2), 63-72.

Abstract:

This article examines the theoretical and practical risks to water security, which is rapidly declining in many parts of the world, particularly in drylands. Water security is threatened by current land‐use developments and over‐utilization of groundwater. About 70 per cent of freshwater resources is globally used by irrigation agriculture. Interrelated water and food shortages may occur in the 21st century as the predictable outcome of current developments. This may lead to regional famine and political instability. Unpredictable contingencies, such as drought, earthquakes, terrorism, conflict and war, can also affect water security in a negative and dangerous way. Predictable and unpredictable, adverse developments vis‐à‐vis water security require more theoretical and practical studies. The important linkage between contingency planning and crisis management has to be developed and refined, including terminology. Safe underground water resources must be identified and developed in every nation and province as strategic reserves in civil emergency planning.