Bibliographic details:

Keinert A. (2018)(ed.). Climate Change - A Global Security and Humanitarian Challenge. The European: Security and defence union ; independent review on European security & defence. Brussels ; Berlin: ProPress Publ. Group.‏

Abstract:

The latest issue of the European Security and Defence Union Journal looks into the security challenges brought by climate-related impacts. The issue addresses climate change as a risk multiplier in fragile contexts. Environmental stress, the weaponization of water, monitoring technologies and the role of armed forces are some of the topics.

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Lee, D., Zhang, H., & Nguyen, C. (2018). The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness. International Monetary Fund. IMF Working Paper No. 18/108. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3221128

Abstract:

Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.

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Lynn, B. H. (2017). The usefulness and economic value of total lightning forecasts made with a dynamic lightning scheme coupled with lightning data assimilation. Weather and Forecasting, 32(2), 645-663.‏

Abstract:

Total lightning probability forecasts for 26 mostly springtime days and 27 summertime days were analyzed for their usefulness and economic value. The mostly springtime forecast days had a relatively high number of severe weather reports compared with the summertime forecast days. The lightning forecasts were made with a dynamic lightning forecast scheme (DLS), and each forecast dataset used lightning assimilation to hasten convective initiation and, in most cases, to improve short-term forecasts. A spatial smoothing parameter σ of 48 km yielded more skillful, reliable, and economically valuable hourly forecasts than other values of σ. Mostly springtime forecasts were more skillful and had more hours of useful skill than summertime forecasts, but the latter still demonstrated useful skill during the first two forecast hours. The DLS forecasts were compared to those obtained with the “McCaul” diagnostic scheme, which diagnoses lightning flash data. The DLS had significantly higher fractions skill scores than the McCaul scheme for or at least one event/flash (10 min)−1. Bias values of the forecast lightning fields with both schemes were overall small. Yet, DLS forecasts started in the early summer evening with RAP data did have positive bias, which was attributed to initial conditions within the RAP. Correlating fractions skill scores for lightning and precipitation indicated that more accurate forecasts of lightning were associated with more accurate precipitation forecasts for convection with a high, but not lower, number of severe weather reports.

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Lynn, B. H., Yair, Y., Price, C., Kelman, G., & Clark, A. J. (2012). Predicting cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning in weather forecast models. Weather and Forecasting, 27(6), 1470-1488.‏

Abstract:

A new prognostic, spatially and temporally dependent variable is introduced to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This variable is called the potential electrical energy (Ep). It was used to predict the dynamic contribution of the grid-scale-resolved microphysical and vertical velocity fields to the production of cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning in convection-allowing forecasts. The source of Ep is assumed to be the noninductive charge separation process involving collisions of graupel and ice particles in the presence of supercooled liquid water. The Ep dissipates when it exceeds preassigned threshold values and lightning is generated. An analysis of four case studies is presented and analyzed. On the 4-km simulation grid, a single cloud-to-ground lightning event was forecast with about equal values of probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR). However, when lighting was integrated onto 12-km and then 36-km grid overlays, there was a large improvement in the forecast skill, and as many as 10 cloud-to-ground lighting events were well forecast on the 36-km grid. The impact of initial conditions on forecast accuracy is briefly discussed, including an evaluation of the scheme in wintertime, when lightning activity is weaker. The dynamic algorithm forecasts are also contrasted with statistical lightning forecasts and differences are noted. The scheme is being used operationally with the Rapid Refresh (13 km) data; the skill scores in these operational runs were very good in clearly defined convective situations.

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Lynn, B. H., Kelman, G., & Ellrod, G. (2015). An evaluation of the efficacy of using observed lightning to improve convective lightning forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 30(2), 405-423.‏

Abstract:

Dynamic lightning forecasts [total and cloud to ground (CG)] were produced on a convection-allowing forecast grid with 4-km grid spacing with lightning assimilation (ASML) and without lightning assimilation [control (CNTL)]. A dynamic scheme produces time- and space-dependent potential electrical energy, which then converts this energy into lightning (e.g., number per hour per grid element). The assimilation scheme uses observed, gridded total lightning to determine how much water vapor is added at constant temperature in the mixed-phase region, leading to a convective response. ASML and CNTL lightning forecasts were compared to observed total and CG lightning. Four case studies—each representing a different type of convective regime—demonstrate that the spatial distribution and intensity of forecast lightning were improved when lightning assimilation was used. Over 3 days in March 2012, eight 18-h lightning forecasts quantified the advantages in forecast accuracy. Equitable threat scores for forecast CG lightning associated with strong [25 (3 h)−1], very strong [50 (3 h)−1], and extreme [100 (3 h)−1] events were significantly more accurate for convective storms that developed in forecasts with lightning assimilation than without. Improvements in forecasts of very strong and extreme events occurred out to 9 h of forecast time, while the forecasts of strong events showed improvement out to 15 h. Spurious convection was removed with filtering in one case study, which led to a notable improvement in the timing and intensity of the squall line. Sensitivity tests examined the utility of this filtering approach, and the importance of reducing mass imbalances liable to occur when too much water vapor mass is introduced into the model.

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Manso, M., & Manso, B. (2012). The Role of Social Media in Crisis: A European Holistic Approach to the Adoption of Online and Mobile Communications in Crisis Response and Search and Rescue Efforts, 17th ICCRTS Operationalizing C2 Agility, Washington, June 2012.‏

Abstract:

Worldwide crises recently prompted new attention to the role information communication technologies (ICT) play in SAR and crisis response efforts, due to the growing citizens' participation through online (social) media and mobile communications. Empowered by new communication media, such as mobile phones with cameras, text messaging and internet-based applications connecting to social media platforms, citizens are the in situ first sensors, but their added-value involvement in crisis response efforts is often disregarded by First Responders (FRs) and Public Protection and Disaster Relief (PPDR) organizations, whose traditional command and control models do not easily adapt to the new crises' trend of including a global, digitally enabled social arena, a condition that is further hampered by restrictive legal framework and privacy concerns. Founded in the analysis of several case studies, we present herein iSAR+, a holistic approach to the effective adoption of the new communication media in emergencies or crises by PPDRs and Citizens. The proposed approach shall enable the use of these technologies for a bi-directional provision, dissemination, sharing and retrieval of information between PPDR, FRs and citizens, with the later acting as strong enablers for the rapid generation of high levels of awareness and C2 agility, during and after crisis situations. Addressing a complex subject, the multi-dimensional nature of this approach considers the organizational, human, technological, legal and ethical aspects that entail the increasingly relevant role of new online and mobile media in crises.

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National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2018). Emergency Alert and Warning Systems: Current Knowledge and Future Research Directions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24935.

Abstract:

Following a series of natural disasters, including Hurricane Katrina, that revealed shortcomings in the nation’s ability to effectively alert populations at risk, Congress passed the Warning, Alert, and Response Network (WARN) Act in 2006. Today, new technologies such as smart phones and social media platforms offer new ways to communicate with the public, and the information ecosystem is much broader, including additional official channels, such as government social media accounts, opt-in short message service (SMS)-based alerting systems, and reverse 911 systems; less official channels, such as main stream media outlets and weather applications on connected devices; and unofficial channels, such as first person reports via social media. Traditional media have also taken advantage of these new tools, including their own mobile applications to extend their reach of beyond broadcast radio, television, and cable. Furthermore, private companies have begun to take advantage of the large amounts of data about users they possess to detect events and provide alerts and warnings and other hazard-related information to their users.

More than 60 years of research on the public response to alerts and warnings has yielded many insights about how people respond to information that they are at risk and the circumstances under which they are most likely to take appropriate protective action. Some, but not all, of these results have been used to inform the design and operation of alert and warning systems, and new insights continue to emerge. Emergency Alert and Warning Systems reviews the results of past research, considers new possibilities for realizing more effective alert and warning systems, explores how a more effective national alert and warning system might be created and some of the gaps in our present knowledge, and sets forth a research agenda to advance the nation’s alert and warning capabilities.

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National Research Council (2011). Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Summary of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/13076.

Abstract:

This book presents a summary of the Workshop on Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Current Knowledge and Research Gaps, held April 13 and 14, 2010, in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's Committee on Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Current Knowledge and Research Needs.

The workshop was structured to gather inputs and insights from social science researchers, technologists, emergency management professionals, and other experts knowledgeable about how the public responds to alerts and warnings, focusing specifically on how the public responds to mobile alerting.

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OECD (2018), Assessing the Real Cost of Disasters: The Need for Better Evidence, OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264298798-en.

Abstract:

Disasters disrupt socio-economic activities and cause substantial damage. Yet, their full economic impact remains largely unknown, especially the cost of smaller disasters and indirect impacts such as those due to business disruptions. Similarly, little information exists on the total amount of public resources that countries devote to disaster risk management. Reliable, comprehensive and comparable data on the economic impact of disasters as well as on public spending on disaster management and risk prevention are essential for developing effective disaster risk management policies. This report provides an overview of countries' efforts to improve the quality and quantity of information on the costs of disasters.

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Weiman G. and Terror and Media Desk (2019). Digital Terrorism in the Israeli Election Campaign? The Interference of Terrorist Organizations and State Sponsors of Terrorisam in the Election Campaign. ICT (International Institute for Counter-Terrorism)

Abstract:

Approximately two years ago, following clear evidence of Russian interference in the US presidential election campaign, the US administration announced to dozens of countries around the world that their election campaigns were a target for the "Russian government’s cyber activists”. There is no doubt that the Russians used online measures to interfere in the election campaigns of most Western countries, including the US, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Montenegro and more. 

In Israel, too, the fear of Russian interference in the upcoming election campaign has increased…

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