Bibliographic details:

Utsu, T., & Ogata, Y. (1995). The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity. Journal of Physics of the Earth, 43(1), 1-33.‏

Abstract:

The Omori formula n(t)=K(t+c)-1 and its modified form n(t)=K(t+c)-P have been successfully applied to many aftershock sequences since the former was proposed just 100 years ago. This paper summarizes studies using these formulae. The problems of fitting these formulae and related point process models to observational data are discussed mainly. Studies published during the last 1/3 century confirmed that the modified Omori formula generally provides an appropriate representation of the temporal variation of aftershock activity. Although no systematic dependence of the index p has been found on the magnitude of the main shock and on the lowest limit of magnitude above which aftershocks are counted, this index (usually p = 0.9-1.5) differs from sequence to. sequence. This variability may be related to the tectonic condition of the region such as structural heterogeneity, stress, and temperature, but it is not clear which factor is most significant in controlling the p value. The constant c is a controversial quantity. It is strongly influenced by incomplete detection of small aftershocks in the early stage of sequence. Careful analyses indicate that c is positive at least for some sequences. Point process models for the temporal pattern of shallow seismicity must include the existence of aftershocks, most suitably expressed by the modified Omori law. Among such models, the ETAS model seems to best represent the main features of seismicity with only five parameters. An anomalous decrease in aftershock activity below the level predicted by the modified Omori formula sometimes precedes a large aftershock. An anomalous decrease in seismic activity of a region below the level predicted by the ETAS model is sometimes followed by a large earthquake in the same or in a neighboring region.

Paper

ענבר, משה. פורת, יורם (עורכים) (2007). אסונות טבע בישראל. כרך א' וב'. החוג לגיאוגרפיה ולימודי סביבה. אוניברסיטת חיפה.

בעשור הראשון של המאה הנוכחית נרשמו אסונות טבע אשר גרמו למאות אלפי קרבנות אם זה הצונמי שפקד את דרום מזרח אסיה, או סופות טייפון, טורנאדו והוריקן שפקדו חבלי ארץ שונים ברחבי העולם כדוגמת הוריקן קתרינה בדרום ארה"ב אשר הסבו נזקים של עשרות מיליארדי דולרים. גידול אוכלוסיית כדור הארץ והתשתיות שהאדם בונה, יחריפו את הפגיעה בנפש והנזקים לרכוש. 
גם בישראל יש עלייה בעלות הנזקים, ולכן יש צורך לנקוט באמצעים כדי להפחית ככל האפשר את מספר הנפגעים והנזקים הכלכליים של האסונות. רפואה מונעת במקרה זה הוא אמצעי חיוני, ומטרת חוברת זו היא להרחיב ולהפיץ ידע, כחלק ממערכת כוללת להגברת החוסן בפני אסונות צפויים. החוברת מאגדת תקצירי עבודות סמינריוניות נבחרות של סטודנטים מהמסלול הנ"ל, התורמים מידע מקורי ועבודות שדה בעלות ערך מדעי לאירועים שנסקרו. במקרה זה לא נערך שיפוט אקדמי חיצוני כמקובל, אך מובאים המקורות השונים ששימשו לכתיבת המאמרים. 
בחוברת נכללים אסונות הטבע שפקדו את ישראל: רעידות אדמה, שיטפונות, גלישות, בצורת ושריפות יער. רעידת האדמה בטורקיה ב-1999 נכללה גם היא מכיוון שגרמה להתעוררות לגבי סכנת הרעידות בארץ וגם מאחר שצוות גדול של צה"ל השתתף בפעולות סיוע והצלה. כנספח לחוברת צורף מילון מונחים לניהול מצבי חרום ואפר"ן (אירוע פתע רב נפגעים) שאושר על ידי האקדמיה העברית ללשון בשנת 2007.

מאמר 

דף אינטרנט

לינק

Bibliographic details:

Magnan, A. K., Schipper, E. L. F., Burkett, M., Bharwani, S., Burton, I., Eriksen, S., Schaar, J. & Ziervogel, G. (2016). Addressing the risk of maladaptation to climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 7(5), 646-665

Abstract:

This paper reviews the current theoretical scholarship on maladaptation and provides some specific case studies—in the Maldives, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Bangladesh—to advance the field by offering an improved conceptual understanding and more practice‐oriented insights. It notably highlights four main dimensions to assess the risk of maladaptation, that is, process, multiple drivers, temporal scales, and spatial scales. It also describes three examples of frameworks—the Pathways, the Precautionary, and the Assessment frameworks—that can help capture the risk of maladaptation on the ground. Both these conceptual and practical developments support the need for putting the risk of maladaptation at the top of the planning agenda. The paper argues that starting with the intention to avoid mistakes and not lock‐in detrimental effects of adaptation‐labeled initiatives is a first, key step to the wider process of adapting to climate variability and change. It thus advocates for the anticipation of the risk of maladaptation to become a priority for decision makers and stakeholders at large, from the international to the local levels. Such an ex ante approach, however, supposes to get a clearer understanding of what maladaptation is. Ultimately, the paper affirms that a challenge for future research consists in developing context‐specific guidelines that will allow funding bodies to make the best decisions to support adaptation (i.e., by better capturing the risk of maladaptation) and practitioners to design adaptation initiatives with a low risk of maladaptation.

Paper

Bibliographic details:

Mandel, J., Amram, S., Beezley, J. D., Kelman, G., Kochanski, A. K., Kondratenko, V. Y., Lynn, B. H., Regev, B., & Vejmelka, M. (2014). Recent advances and applications of WRF–SFIRE. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(10), 2829-2845.‏

Abstract:

Coupled atmosphere–fire models can now generate forecasts in real time, owing to recent advances in computational capabilities. WRF–SFIRE consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire-spread model SFIRE. This paper presents new developments, which were introduced as a response to the needs of the community interested in operational testing of WRF–SFIRE. These developments include a fuel-moisture model and a fuel-moisture-data-assimilation system based on the Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) observations, allowing for fire simulations across landscapes and time scales of varying fuel-moisture conditions. The paper also describes the implementation of a coupling with the atmospheric chemistry and aerosol schemes in WRF–Chem, which allows for a simulation of smoke dispersion and effects of fires on air quality. There is also a data-assimilation method, which provides the capability of starting the fire simulations from an observed fire perimeter, instead of an ignition point. Finally, an example of operational deployment in Israel, utilizing some of the new visualization and data-management tools, is presented.

Paper

Bibliographic details:

Lynn, B. H., Healy, R., & Druyan, L. M. (2007). An analysis of the potential for extreme temperature change based on observations and model simulations. Journal of Climate, 20(8), 1539-1554

Abstract:

The study analyzes observational climate data for June–August 1977–2004 and simulations of current and future climate scenarios from a nested GCM/regional climate model system to assess the potential for extreme temperature change over the eastern United States. Observational evidence indicates that anomalously warm summers in the eastern United States coincide with anomalously cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, conditions that are conducive to geopotential ridging over the east, less frequent precipitation, and lower accumulated rainfall. The study also found that days following nighttime rain are warmer on average than daytime rain events, emphasizing the importance of the timing of precipitation on the radiation balance. Precipitation frequency and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies together account for 57% of the 28-yr variance in maximum surface temperature anomalies. Simulation results show the sensitivity of maximum surface air temperature to the moist convection parameterization that is employed, since different schemes produce different diurnal cycles and frequencies of precipitation. The study suggests that, in order to accurately project scenarios of extreme temperature change, models need to realistically simulate changes in the surface energy balance caused by the interannual variation of these precipitation characteristics. The mesoscale model that was realistic in this respect predicted much warmer mean and maximum surface air temperatures for five future summers than the parallel GCM driving simulation.

Paper

Bibliographic details:

Lynn, B. H., Carlson, T. N., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R., Druyan, L., Cox, J., Gaffin, S., Parshall, L., & Civerolo, K. (2009). A modification to the NOAH LSM to simulate heat mitigation strategies in the New York City metropolitan area. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 48(2), 199-216.‏

Abstract:

A new approach to simulating the urban environment with a mesoscale model has been developed to identify efficient strategies for mitigating increases in surface air temperatures associated with the urban heat island (UHI). A key step in this process is to define a "global" roughness for the cityscape and to use this roughness to diagnose 10-m temperature, moisture, and winds within an atmospheric model. This information is used to calculate local exchange coefficients for different city surface types (each with their own "local roughness" lengths); each surface's energy balances, including surface air temperatures, humidity, and wind, are then readily obtained. The model was run for several summer days in 2001 for the New York City five-county area. The most effective strategy to reduce the surface radiometric and 2-m surface air temperatures was to increase the albedo of the city (impervious) surfaces. However, this caused increased thermal stress at street level, especially noontime thermal stress. As an alternative, the planting of trees reduced the UHI's adverse effects of high temperatures and also reduced noontime thermal stress on city residents (and would also have reduced cooling energy requirements of small structures). Taking these results together, the analysis suggests that the best mitigation strategy is planting trees at street level and increasing the reflectivity of roofs.

Paper

Bibliographic details:

Lynn, B. H., Healy, R., & Druyan, L. M. (2009). Investigation of Hurricane Katrina characteristics for future, warmer climates. Climate Research, 39(1), 75-86

Abstract:

Simulations of Hurricane Katrina using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on a 9 km grid over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast United States are analyzed. Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses provided the initial fields and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) 4 times per day to drive a control simulation during the period 27 to 30 August 2005. The control captured many of the observed characteristics of Katrina. A new approach, mean signal nesting, was devised to make climate change projections of the storm for each decade in the 21st century. Mean climate change signals were extracted from A2 scenario projections of the future climate by an atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM). These signals were combined with the GFS data used in the control to create the initial fields and LBC for WRF climate change simulations. This innovative method allows the LBC to retain realistic sub-daily variability present in GFS data, but still include the climate change signal. Hurricane simulations representing the earlier decades tracked east of the 2005 trajectory, and west of that track for 4 of the 5 later decades. Sensitivity experiments suggest that anticipated atmospheric warming versus expected positive sea surface temperature trends have opposing influences on developing storms. Warming trends during the 21st century are associated with ever-increasing vertical thermal stability, inhibiting initial hurricane intensification and limiting their diameters. Eye wall wind speeds in excess of 60 m s-1 at the time of landfall could be sustained for a somewhat longer duration in storms toward the end of the 21st century.

Paper

Bibliographic details:

Lynn, B. H., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R., Rind, D., Hogrefe, C., Druyan, L., Healy, R., Dudhia, J., Rosenthal, J., & Kinney, P. (2010). Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies. Climatic Change, 99(3-4), 567-587.‏

Abstract:

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not.

Paper

Bibliographic details:

Lynn, B. H., Druyan, L., Hogrefe, C., Dudhia, J., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R., Rind, D., Healy, R., Rosenthal, J., & Kinney, P. (2004). Sensitivity of present and future surface temperatures to precipitation characteristics. Climate Research, 28(1), 53-65

Abstract:

A model simulation study shows that different diurnal cycles of precipitation are consistent with radically different present and future climate characteristics. In projected future climate scenarios, divergence in the time of day and type of precipitation had very divergent impacts on the radiation balance and consequently on surface temperatures. The relationship between the diurnal cycle of precipitation versus the present and future climate was examined using the GISS-MM5 (Goddard Institute for Space Studies Mesoscale Model 5) regional climate modeling system with 2 alternative moist convection schemes. June-August (JJA) mean surface temperatures of the 1990s, 2050s, and 2080s were simulated over the eastern US on a double nested 108/36 km domain, with the 36 km domain centered over the eastern US. In the 1990s, one model version simulated maxima in (convective) precipitation during the early morning, while the second model simulated the hour of precipitation maxima with considerable spatial variability (in better agreement with observations). In the futuristic climate scenarios, differences in the time of day of precipitation had very important impacts on the radiation balance at the surface. One version gave more precipitation at night and fewer clouds during the day, promoting higher surface temperatures. The alternative version created more precipitation during the day, consistent with diminished absorption of solar radiation at the surface and consequently lower surface temperatures. The results demonstrate the importance of improving cumulus parameterizations in regional mesoscale and global climate models and suggest that such improvements would lead to greater confidence in model projections of climate change.

Paper

Bibliographic details:

Adamson, G. C., Hannaford, M. J., & Rohland, E. J. (2018). Re-thinking the present: the role of a historical focus in climate change adaptation research. Global Environmental Change, 48, 195-205

Abstract:

There is a growing recognition that adaptation to climate change requires an understanding of social processes that unfold across extended temporal trajectories. Yet, despite a move to reconceptualise adaptation as ‘pathways of change and response’ with a deeper temporal dimension, the past generally remains poorly integrated into adaptation studies. This is related to a disavowal of environmental determinism within the academic field of history, which has caused the past to be addressed from other disciplinary perspectives within climate change literature, leading to accusations of over-simplification and neo-determinism. Conversely, whilst a relatively small amount of research within the sub discipline of historical climatology has engaged with theories from mainstream adaptation to understand societies in the past, there has been little influence in the other direction.

Building on a comprehensive review and critique of existing approaches to historical climate-society research, we argue for three important areas where historians should engage with climate change adaptation. The first area we call particularizing adaptation; this is the development of long-term empirical studies that uncover societal relations to climate in a particular place – including climate’s cultural dimensions – which can provide a baseline and contextualization for climate change adaptation options. The second, institutional path dependency and memory, argues for a focus on the evolution of formal institutions with a responsibility for adaptation, to understand how historical events and decisions inform and constrain practices today. Our third argument is for an appreciation of the history of ideas and concepts that underpin climate change adaptation. We call for a second-order observation – observation of the observers – within climate change research, to ensure that adaptation does not perpetuate historically-grown power structures.

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