Bibliographic details:

Grinberger Y., Felsenstein D., and Samuels P. (2018). Emerging Urban Dynamics in the Aftermath of a Disaster: Simulating the Role of the Labor Market, in Borsekova K. and Nijkamp P. (eds) Resilience and Urban Disasters, Edward Elgar

Abstract (of the book):

This book addresses unexpected disasters and shocks in cities and urban systems by providing quantitative and qualitative tools for impact analysis and disaster management. Including environmental catastrophes, political turbulence and economic shocks, Resilience and Urban Disasters explores a large range of tumultuous events and key case studies to thoroughly cover these core areas. Chapters explore novel contributions on urban evolution and adjustment patterns based on studies from across the globe. Both causal mechanisms and policy responses to the high social costs of urban disasters are addressed. In particular, the book explores the socio-economic impacts on urban systems that are subject to disasters, including migration due to large earthquakes in Japan, the economic impact of terrorist attacks in Istanbul and labour market changes as a result of natural disasters in Italy. Urban planning and urban economics scholars will greatly benefit from the multidisciplinary analyses of a variety of case studies in the book. City planners and urban administrators will also find the exploration of potential paths of resilience for cities in this book to be an invaluable tool for future planning.

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Lichter, M., & Felsenstein, D. (2014). Coastal Communities under Threat: Comparing Property and Social Exposure. In Geography Research Forum (Vol. 34, pp. 40-58).

Abstract:

We examine the threat to coastal communities from sea level rise and extreme flooding. A distinction is drawn between the exposure of the physical property base of a community and its social composition. We investigate whether any correspondence exists between these two dimensions of vulnerability and whether it holds for both small and large communities. Flood scenarios along the Israeli coast are defined and we look at the resultant property and exposure patterns in communities at different flooding increments. Results are presented for three select inundation increments. Using comparative and graphic methods, we analyze exposure rankings for different communities and property and social exposure at the intra-urban level. We use break point analysis to trace the evolution of community exposure at different flooding increments. We conclude with some cautionary policy implications with respect to opportunities for change in highly exposed communities in the wake of extreme flooding

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Lichter, M., Grinberger, A. Y., & Felsenstein, D. (2015). Simulating and communicating outcomes in disaster management situations. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 4(4), 1827-1847.

Abstract:

An important, but overlooked component of disaster management is raising the awareness and preparedness of potential stakeholders. We show how recent advances in agent-based modeling and geo-information analytics can be combined to this effect. Using a dynamic simulation model, we estimate the long run outcomes of two very different urban disasters with severe consequences: an earthquake and a missile attack. These differ in terms of duration, intensity, permanence, and focal points. These hypothetical shocks are simulated for the downtown area of Jerusalem. Outcomes are compared in terms of their potential for disaster mitigation. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the simulation yield rich outputs. Web-based mapping is used to visualize these results and communicate risk to policy makers, planners, and the informed public. The components and design of this application are described. Implications for participatory disaster management and planning are discussed.

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Maor, M. (2012). Policy overreaction. Journal of Public Policy, 32(3), 231-259.

Abstract:

The literature on policy success and failure does not capture policies that may be too  successful,  as  well  as  ‘‘too  much’’  and/or  ‘‘too  soon’’  patterns  of  policy. To bridge this gap, this conceptual article relies on one of the most robust findings in  the  psychology  of  judgement,  namely  that  many  people  are  overconfident, prone  to  place  too  much  faith  in  their  intuitions.  Based on this premise, the analytical framework advanced here revolves around two key dimensions of policy overreaction: (i) the effects of positive and negative events, and (ii) the effects of overestimation and accurate estimation of information.  Based on these dimensions, the article identifies and illustrates four distinct modes of policy overreaction that reflect differences in the nature of implemented policy. It argues that the policy tools menu utilized in each mode of policy overreaction is dominated by unique mechanisms for changing or coordinating behavior, which, once established, produce excessive – objective and/or perceived – social costs.

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Nabi, R. L. (2003). Exploring the framing effects of emotion: Do discrete emotions differentially influence information accessibility, information seeking, and policy preference?. Communication Research, 30(2), 224-247.

Abstract:

The persuasive effects of emotions have been the focus of burgeoning interest in recent years. Rather than considering how emotions function within traditional paradigms of attitude change, this research explores the possibility that emotions serve as frames for issues, privileging certain information in terms of accessibility and thus guiding subsequent decision making. This study’s results offer evidence that fear and anger can differentially affect information accessibility, desired information seeking, and policy preference, though these effects may be contingent on schema development. These findings support not only the relationship between emotions and frames but also the importance of the discrete emotion perspective in persuasive contexts.

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Risbey, J. S. (2008). The new climate discourse: Alarmist or alarming?. Global Environmental Change, 18(1), 26-37.

Abstract:

The discourse on climate change is in part divided between a sense of alarm and a sense of alarmism in assessments of the magnitude and urgency of the problem. The divide in the discourse among climatologists relates to tensions in the use of key phrases to describe climate change. This article reviews evidence to support claims that climate change can be viewed as ‘catastrophic’, ‘rapid’, ‘urgent’, ‘irreversible’, ‘chaotic’, and ‘worse than previously thought’. Each of these terms are imprecise and may convey a range of meaning. The method used here is to assess whether the conventional understandings of these terms are broadly consistent or inconsistent with the science, or else ambiguous. On balance, these terms are judged to be consistent with the science. Factors which divide climatologists on this discourse are also reviewed. The divide over a sense of urgency relates to disagreement on the manner and rate at which ice sheets breakdown in response to sustained warming. Whether this rate is fast or slow, the amount of time available to reduce emissions sufficient to prevent ice sheet breakdown is relatively short, given the moderate levels of warming required and the inertia of the climate and energy systems. A new discourse is emerging which underscores the scope of the problem and the scope and feasibility of solutions. This discourse differentiates itself from existing discourses which view the magnitudes of the problem or of solutions as prohibitive.

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Segal, E., Negev, M., Feitelson, E., & Zaychik, D. (2017). Devising ‘policy packages’ for seismic retrofitting of residences. Natural Hazards, 89(1), 497-519.

Abstract:

Collapse of residential buildings is the major cause of death during earthquakes. Seismic retrofitting of residential buildings is a cost-effective way to reduce injury and death. However, seismic retrofitting is a complex policy problem, entailing multiple barriers and requiring multi-stakeholder, multi-level, multi-sectoral, and multi-disciplinary collaborations. Policy packages are an approach to address complex, multi-dimensional policy challenges by developing synergic combinations of policy instruments, geared to achieving policy goals, while minimizing unintended effects and enhancing legitimacy and political feasibility. Israel has a long history of seismic activity, and a seismic building code was introduced in 1980. Yet, 20% of the country’s housing units predate the building code and require seismic retrofitting. A current market-based plan is attractive only in high property value areas, while the most vulnerable regions are largely in the periphery. This paper presents a three-step methodology to formulate policy packages for seismic retrofitting in Israel. Through expert workshops, 69 relevant policy instruments were identified and analyzed. Then, three effective policy packages were formulated based on the interrelations of the various instruments. Finally, the packages were modified to enhance social and political acceptability. The three packages are a ‘national package’ assigning responsibility to a national-level authority, a ‘municipal package’ assigning responsibility to local government, and a ‘civilian package’ which aims to create conditions for homeowners to retrofit with less government intervention. Each package is comprised of 16 policy instruments, seven of which are common to all three packages

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Sovacool, B. K., & Saunders, H. (2014). Competing policy packages and the complexity of energy security. Energy, 67, 641-651.

Abstract:

To underscore both the diversity and severity of energy security tradeoffs, this study examines five different energy security policy packages—five distinct strategies aimed at reducing oil dependence, enhancing energy affordability, expanding access to modern energy services, responding to climate change, and minimizing the water intensity of energy production. It identifies both compelling synergies and conflicts between each of the five strategies. The central value of the study is that it turns on its head the widely accepted notion of a “portfolio approach” or “all of the above” strategy to energy policymaking. To make this case, the article begins by elucidating the complexity and multidimensionality of energy security as a concept. It then introduces our five energy security policy packages to illustrate how some energy security objectives complement each other whereas others counteract each other. It concludes by noting that energy security is not an absolute state, and that achieving it only “works” by prioritizing some dimensions, or policy goals and packages, more than others.

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Van Wijk, J., & Fischhendler, I. (2017). The construction of urgency discourse around mega-projects: the Israeli case. Policy Sciences, 50(3), 469-494.

Abstract:

Various studies have pointed to urgency in decision-making as a major catalyst for policy change. Urgency evokes a crisis frame in which emotions and cognitive and institutional biases are more likely to be mobilized in support of the policy preferences of powerful actors. As a result, decision-makers tend to be driven by emotions and opportunity, often with detrimental results for the quality of the planning process. Although urgency has such a profound influence on the quality of decision-making, little is known about how, when and by whom urgency is constructed in the planning process of public infrastructure. By means of a discourse analysis, this study traces the timing, motives and ways actors discursively construct a sense of urgency in decision-making on the building of terminals for the reception and treatment of the natural gas that was recently found off the coast of Israel. The results of this study indicate that government regulators, but also private sector actors, deliberately constructed an urgency discourse at critical moments during the planning process. By evoking terms that resonated with the target audience, regulators employed urgency as an instrument to legitimize unorthodox planning practices whilst precluding the consideration of alternative planning solutions. Thus, urgency framing is a means of controlling both the discourse and the agenda—and is therefore an exercise in power maintenance—by entrenched interest groups.

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Bibliographic details:

Frazier, T. G., Walker, M. H., Kumari, A., & Thompson, C. M. (2013). Opportunities and constraints to hazard mitigation planning. Applied Geography, 40, 52-60.

Abstract:

Hazard mitigation plans (HMPs) play a critical role in the reduction of societal loss from natural and human-caused hazards and disasters. The occurrence of hazardous events cannot be prevented but hazard mitigation planning when diligently applied has proven to be an effective tool for enhancing local community resilience and reducing societal losses. HMPs are planning documents that aim to increase community preparedness and resiliency, and decrease vulnerability in the event of a hazard. However, due to a variety of reasons many communities often fail to address criteria that could protect against future societal losses. For instance, minimum requirements, as stipulated by the Disaster Mitigation Act 2000, are all that is needed to qualify for federal mitigation grant funding regardless of plan quality or appropriateness of HMPs to local hazards and risks. Additionally local emergency managers and planners also face constraints like integration of HMPs into comprehensive plans and a standardized tool to evaluate plan quality. In essence most communities in the US have HMPs but lack a method of evaluating the quality and effectiveness of their plans for mitigating hazards. Building on the standard HMP minimum requirements, additional criteria established in prominent hazard literature, and information culled from interviews, this study develops an evaluation matrix to assess local HMP quality. Based on the factors mentioned above, researchers explored the opportunities and constraints to HMP development faced by jurisdictions within our Western Washington study area. Conclusions reveal that available resources, level of sophistication, and political complexities affect the quality of HMP development and the actual implementation of mitigation planning strategies.

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