Bibliographic details:

Papadopoulos, G. A., Lekkas, E., Katsetsiadou, K. N., Rovythakis, E., & Yahav, A. (2020). Tsunami Alert Efficiency in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea: The 2 May 2020 Earthquake (Mw6. 6) and Near-Field Tsunami South of Crete (Greece). GeoHazards, 1(1), 44-60.

Abstract:

The Mediterranean tsunami warning system is based on national monitoring centers (Tsunami Service Providers, TSPs) and operates under the IOC/UNESCO umbrella. For the first time, we evaluate in-depth the system’s performance for improving its operational effectiveness in conditions of extremely narrow time frames due to the near-field tsunami sources. At time 10 (± 2) min from the origin time, to, of the 2 May 2020 (Mw6.6) earthquake in Crete, the Greek, Italian and Turkish TSPs sent alerts to civil protection subscribers. A small tsunami (amplitude ~16 cm a.m.s.l.) of magnitude Mt6.8, arriving at south Crete in ~17 min from to, was documented from tide-gauge records and macroscopic observations. The analysis of the upstream alert messages showed that the tsunami alert efficiency is not adequate, since (1) earthquake parameters of low accuracy were used for the initial message, (2) alerts were issued after some forecasted wave arrival times had expired, (3) alert messages are characterized by various discrepancies and uncertainties. Our calculations showed that the upstream component improves if the alert time is shortened by a few minutes and the initial earthquake parameters are more accurate. Very late procedures were noted in the Greek civil protection downstream component, thus rendering response actions useless. In Israel, a bit more time was available to the authorities for decision making. A drastic improvement of the downstream component is needed to achieve timely alerting for local authorities and communities.

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Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management - Ministry of Education National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Emergency Management Information institute of the Ministry of Emergency Management ֲ(2020) 2019 Global Natural Disaster Assessment Report.

Abstract:

This report systematically assessed the global natural disasters occurred in 2019 and over the last 30 years, and analyzed the ranking of China in Asia and worldwide, using Global Disaster Database (EM-DAT), China's disaster data, and data collected from the insurance industry.

The main conclusions had been drawn as follows (pp. 3-4):

1. In general, global natural disasters in 2019 were less severe;
2. The majority of global disasters in 2019 were caused by floods with smaller losses than the average for recent years;
3. 2019 witnessed only a few earthquakes, which was rare in recent years;
4. The impact of bush fires was substantial;
5. Developing countries account for a large share of the losses, with the United States and Japan showing significant losses;
6. China's natural disasters losses were light overall but still ranked high in the world.

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Ager, A., Baillie Smith, M., Barbelet, V., Carpenter, S., Carter, W., Cartwright, A., .. & Halff, K. (2015). World disasters report: focus on local actors, the key to humanitarian effectiveness.

Abstract:

Local actors are often the most effective in conducting humanitarian operations. However, despite their critical role, they struggle to attract the funding and support they need. The 2015 World Disasters Report – launched by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) – examines the complexities and challenges local actors face in scaling-up and sustaining their humanitarian response.

Although widely recognized, the effectiveness of local or national humanitarian organizations is not reflected in humanitarian financing or coordination structures. The Report found, for example, that just 1.6 per cent of funding for humanitarian assistance is channeled directly to national and local NGOs.  It presents the case for a shift towards the “localization” of aid and a more equal partnerships between international and local actors.

Chapter 1 presents the variations in interpretation of who are local actors and what it means to work with them. It will also highlight the dilemmas and some of the consequences of current practices.  Chapter 2 is a summary of a global study and presents a clear message that investment in capacity development pays off in the long term in cases where it is driven by a real local need, where local actors are active in programme design and where cultural values are mixed with creative methods, rather than merely fulfilling donor requirements or facilitating delivery. Chapter 3 points out that the current profile of local actors in normative frameworks for disaster risk management is growing progressively stronger at both the international and the national levels, but the access of local actors to key decision-making forums has not yet caught up.

What the international community has been funding and where such funding has gone is the focus of Chapter 4. Chapters 5 and 6 focus on how both international and local actors had to adapt to such changes. Chapter 7 brings in an aspect that cuts across all crises, whether conflict or disasters resulting from natural hazards – technology in the hands of the population and used in either organic or organized ways by local actors is redefining the way crises are managed and dealt with. The chapter poses a central question: to what extent would technology contribute to changing the relationship between international and local actors or put local actors in the lead, thus altering any balance of power?

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National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening Post-Hurricane Supply Chain Resilience: Observations from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25490.

Abstract:

Resilient supply chains are crucial to maintaining the consistent delivery of goods and services to the American people. The modern economy has made supply chains more interconnected than ever, while also expanding both their range and fragility. In the third quarter of 2017, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria revealed some significant vulnerabilities in the national and regional supply chains of Texas, Florida, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The broad impacts and quick succession of these three hurricanes also shed light on the effectiveness of the nation's disaster logistics efforts during response through recovery.

Drawing on lessons learned during the 2017 hurricanes, this report explores future strategies to improve supply chain management in disaster situations. This report makes recommendations to strengthen the roles of continuity planning, partnerships between civic leaders with small businesses, and infrastructure investment to ensure that essential supply chains will remain operational in the next major disaster. Focusing on the supply chains food, fuel, water, pharmaceutical, and medical supplies, the recommendations of this report will assist the Federal Emergency Management Agency as well as state and local officials, private sector decision makers, civic leaders, and others who can help ensure that supply chains remain robust and resilient in the face of natural disasters.

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Marriner, N., Kaniewski, D., Morhange, C., Flaux, C., Giaime, M., Vacchi, M., & Goff, J. (2017). Tsunamis in the geological record: Making waves with a cautionary tale from the Mediterranean. Science advances, 3(10), e1700485.

Abstract:

From 2000 to 2015, tsunamis and storms killed more than 430,000 people worldwide and affected a further >530 million, with total damages exceeding US$970 billion. These alarming trends, underscored by the tragic events of the 2004 Indian Ocean catastrophe, have fueled increased worldwide demands for assessments of past, present, and future coastal risks. Nonetheless, despite its importance for hazard mitigation, discriminating between storm and tsunami deposits in the geological record is one of the most challenging and hotly contended topics in coastal geoscience. To probe this knowledge gap, we present a 4500-year reconstruction of “tsunami” variability from the Mediterranean based on stratigraphic but not historical archives and assess it in relation to climate records and reconstructions of storminess. We elucidate evidence for previously unrecognized “tsunami megacycles” with three peaks centered on the Little Ice Age, 1600, and 3100 cal. yr B.P. (calibrated years before present). These ~1500-year cycles, strongly correlated with climate deterioration in the Mediterranean/North Atlantic, challenge up to 90% of the original tsunami attributions and suggest, by contrast, that most events are better ascribed to periods of heightened storminess. This timely and provocative finding is crucial in providing appropriately tailored assessments of coastal hazard risk in the Mediterranean and beyond.

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Vött, A., et al (2019). Publicity waves based on manipulated geoscientific data suggesting climatic trigger for majority of tsunami findings in the Mediterranean–Response to 'Tsunamis in the geological record: Making waves with a cautionary tale from the Mediterranean' by Marriner et al.(2017). 

Bibliographic details:

Vött, A., Bruins, H. J., Gawehn, M., Goodman-Tchernov, B. N., De Martini, P. M., Kelletat, D., ... & Willershäuser, T. (2019). Publicity waves based on manipulated geoscientific data suggesting climatic trigger for majority of tsunami findings in the Mediterranean–Response to'Tsunamis in the geological record: Making waves with a cautionary tale from the Mediterranean'by Marriner et al.(2017). Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplementary Issues, 62(2), 7-45.

Abstract:

This article is a response to the publication by Nick Marriner, David Kaniewski, Christophe Morhange, Clément Flaux, Matthieu Giaime, Matteo Vacchi and James Goff entitled "Tsunamis in the geological record: Making waves with a cautionary tale from the Mediterranean", published in October 2017 in Science Advances. Making use of radiometric data sets published in the context of selected palaeotsunami studies by independent research groups from different countries, Marriner et al. (2017) carried out statistical and time series analyses. They compared their results with an assessment of Mediterranean storminess since the mid-Holocene that was previously published by Kaniewski et al. (2016) based on a single-core study from coastal Croatia. Marriner et al. (2017) now present "previously unrecognized" 1500-year "tsunami megacycles" which they suggest correlating with Mediterranean climate deterioration. They conclude that up to 90% of all the 'tsunamis' identified in original tsunami papers used for their study are "better ascribed to periods of heightened storminess". In this response, we show that (i) the comparison of statistical data describing storm and tsunami events presented by Marriner et al. (2017) is incorrect both from a geographical and a statistical point of view, (ii) the assumed periods of central Mediterranean storminess published by Kaniewski et al. (2016) are missing convincing geological and geochronological evidence and are statistically incorrect, (iii) the palaeotsunami data that was originally collected by different groups of authors were manipulated by Marriner et al. (2017) in a way that the resulting data set – used as a benchmark for the entire study of these authors – is wrong and inaccurate, and that (iv) Marriner et al. (2017) did not address or even negate the original sedimentological studies' presentation of comparative tsunami versus storm deposits for the selected individual localities. Based on a thorough and detailed evaluation of the geoscientific background and the methodological approach of the studies by Kaniewski et al. (2016) and Marriner et al. (2017), we conclude that there is no serious and reliable geoscientific evidence for increased storminess in the (central) Mediterranean Sea between 3400 – 2550, 2000 –1800, 1650 –1450, 1300 – 900 and 400 –100 cal BP. The impact of those storms in the Mediterranean, producing geological traces somewhat comparable to those caused by tsunamis, is insignificantly small. For the period 1902 – 2017, Mediterranean tsunamis make up 73 – 98 % of all combined extreme wave events (EWE) leading to coastal flooding and appeared up to 181 times deadlier than comparable storm effects. This is the reason why coastal Mediterranean research has focused on Holocene records of the tsunami hazard, while research on comparable storm effects is of lower significance. The validity of geological evidence for Mediterranean EWE and their interpretation as caused by palaeotsunami impacts thus remains untouched. Tsunamis, in most cases directly and indirectly induced by seismo-tectonics, have always been a much greater threat to Mediterranean coastal regions than comparable storm effects. ' Tsunami megacycles' as expressions of a 1500-year periodicity centered on the Little Ice Age, 1600 and 3100 cal BP that were correlated with questionable storm data do not exist. Cause and effect relationships work the other way round: Major tsunami events, testified by historical accounts, such as those that occurred in 1908 AD, 1755 AD, 1693 AD and 365 AD, induced numerous studies along Mediterranean coasts. These investigations resulted in a large number of publications that specifically focus on those time periods, suspected by Marriner et al. (2017) to bear signs of increased storminess, namely 200 – 300 BP and 1600 BP. The Mediterranean tsunami record cannot be ascribed to periods of increased storminess. On the contrary, the tsunami record as interpreted by the authors of the original papers cited by Marriner et al. (2017), is due to the outstandingly high seismo-tectonic activity of the region. Mediterranean tsunamis are mostly triggered by earthquakes or by earthquake-related secondary effects such as underwater mass movements. The study by Marriner et al. (2017) is also problematic because it includes simple basic statistical mistakes and major methodological inconsistencies. The geomorphological and sedimentary back-ground of EWE deposits was not taken into account. The 'broad brush' approach used by Marriner et al. (2017) to sweep sedimentary deposits from tsunami origin into the storm bag origin, just on the basis of (false) statistics coupled with very broad and unreliable palaeoclimatic indicators and time frames, is misleading. The distortion of original data collected and interpreted by other research groups by Marriner et al. (2017) is particularly disturbing. Their publication is also bound to question in this case the effectiveness of scientific quality assurance in modern publishing commerce. Marriner et al. (2017: 7) talk down the considerable risk to human settlements and infrastructure along Mediterranean coasts in relation to tsunami and earthquake hazards. Their conclusion is not only wrong as a result of their incorrect data mining and analyses, it is also irresponsible with regard to national and international efforts of tsunami and earthquake risk mitigation.

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Bruins, H. J., Akong’a, J. J., Rutten, M. M., & Kressel, G. M. (2003). NIRP Research for Policy Series 17.

Abstract:

This study deals with problems of drought and drought-coping mechanisms among pastoralists living in arid zones in Kenya and the Negev (Israel). Its final objective is to provide input and formulate policy recommendations for the development of integrated drought contingency planning. The results are based on a cooperative effort by Kenyan, Israeli and Dutch researchers carried out under the NIRP programme between 1994 and 1999. NIRP aims to encourage development-related research focused on socioeconomic and cultural change. Being policy-oriented in nature, NIRP aims to make the results of research accessible to anyone interested in solving the problems investigated. The target groups for such knowledge include policy makers, representatives of non-governmental and donor organisations, and the scientific community. With this aim in mind, the Publication Board has launched the NIRP Research for Policy Series as a channel for the publication of “user-friendly” summaries of more than 30 scientific reports. The Publication Board wishes to thank Dr. Mirjam A.F. Ros-Tonen for editing the summary on which this monograph is based. Thanks are also due to Howard Turner for revising the English. Last but not least, the Publication Board wishes to thank the research team for the successful completion of this study. It would like to pay particular tribute to Mr. Francis M. Ndaraiya, who made valuable contributions during the conception of the project, while on a training visit in Israel, at the Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research. He played a key role in Kenya in the logistical execution of the project, particularly with regard to communication, transport and field visits. He conducted pioneering rainwater-harvesting field trials in Kajiado District, in cooperation with the local Maasai, but disease prevented him from continuing and concluding these experiments. He nevertheless collected a significant amount of important data during 1995, 1996 and 1997. He passed away after a severe illness on 18 December 1998.

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Bruins, H. J. (1996). A rationale for drought contingency planning in Israel. The Mosaic of Israeli Geography, Beersheva: Ben-Gurion University of the Negev Press, The Negev Center for Regional Development, 345-353.

Abstract:

During the past decade many countries in the world have experienced droughts, with severe impacts on water urban supply systems. Because droughts are natural phenomena, water utilities must design and implement drought management plans. This topic was selected for the International Course on Drought Management Planning in Water Supply Systems, which took place in Valencia, Spain, on 9-12 December 1997, and was hosted by the Universidad Internacional Menéndez y Pelayo (UIMP).
The contributions in this book have been carefully selected and presented in four sections:

• Introduction
• Water Supply Systems Modernization
• Drought Management in an Urban Context
• Practical Cases (Israel, USA, Italy, Spain)

To achieve a well-balanced approach, authors were invited from academia as well as from consultancies and water utilities, and have wide experience in the subject. The book is mainly aimed at water supply engineers, working in utilities and consultancies.

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Bruins, H. J. (2000). Drought hazards in Israel and Jordan. Drought: a global assessment, 178-193.

Abstract:

 An analysis is made of drought hazards in Israel and Jordan in relation to climate and water resources management. The definition and classification of dry climates and drought are treated in detail. Suggestions are made for a scientifically accurate, convenient, and globally comparable system to classify bioclimatic aridity, which is useful on a local and global scale. The following drought types are distinguished: meteorological drought; agricultural drought; pastoral drought; hydrologic drought; socio-economic drought; and, human-made calamity drought. Information is provided on the geography, climate, land use, and water resources in both countries. Policy recommendations to reduce and mitigate potential drought disasters are provided and the importance of regional development co-operation is highlighted. Other subjects include: the National Water Carrier system in Israel; large-scale desalinization of seawater and brackish groundwater for the domestic sector; the development of an additional water supply system based on regional groundwater and floodwater resources; the treatment of sewage to prevent groundwater pollution; and, the hazard of famine in relation to the import of "virtual water" in the form of staples.

Bibliographic details: (APA)

Bruins, H. J. (2000). Proactive contingency planning vis‐à‐vis declining water security in the 21st century. Journal of contingencies and crisis management, 8(2), 63-72.

Abstract:

This article examines the theoretical and practical risks to water security, which is rapidly declining in many parts of the world, particularly in drylands. Water security is threatened by current land‐use developments and over‐utilization of groundwater. About 70 per cent of freshwater resources is globally used by irrigation agriculture. Interrelated water and food shortages may occur in the 21st century as the predictable outcome of current developments. This may lead to regional famine and political instability. Unpredictable contingencies, such as drought, earthquakes, terrorism, conflict and war, can also affect water security in a negative and dangerous way. Predictable and unpredictable, adverse developments vis‐à‐vis water security require more theoretical and practical studies. The important linkage between contingency planning and crisis management has to be developed and refined, including terminology. Safe underground water resources must be identified and developed in every nation and province as strategic reserves in civil emergency planning.