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Rey, D., & Bar-Gera, H. (2020). Long-term scheduling for road network disaster recovery. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 42, 101353.

Abstract:

In this paper, we address the problem of scheduling reconstruction efforts in a transport network struck by a disaster. The recovery of the road network is assumed to require a substantial amount of resources, e.g. budget, working crew, equipment; which are limited in availability. We assume that the recovery of the road network will take place over a pre-defined planning horizon divided into time periods. Further, we assume that the time periods are long enough so that travelers have the time to adjust their route choice preferences. We formulate this network recovery problem as a bilevel optimization problem wherein travelers are assumed to behave under user equilibrium conditions. We propose an exact enumerative approach that builds on prior work and requires the solution of an exponential number of traffic equilibrium problems, as well as three heuristics that are employed from the scheduling literature. Numerical experiments are designed on a realistic transport network wherein two disaster scenarios are considered. Both disaster scenarios aim to represent the possible damage caused by disasters that exhibit a fault-line topology, such as earthquakes. The numerical results obtained highlight the performance of the proposed heuristics for the bilevel network recovery scheduling problem at hand, but also reveal that these methods may fall short of optimal solutions when the amount of recovery resources is low compared to the demand of recovery projects.

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Mizrahi, S. (2020). Cascading disasters, information cascades and continuous time models of domino effects. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 101672.

Abstract:

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the dynamics through which cascading disasters evolve, spread and come to control in situations of uncertainty and vulnerability. The framework first establishes the idea that disasters are inherently a social phenomenon rooted in the social structure and reflects the processes of social change. The core of such social structures and processes is the mechanism of collective action. We then explain the ways in which formal mathematical models in general, and game theoretical models in particular, can help analyze the dynamics of collective action, detect the core parameters through which they evolve and, in particular, identify the interactions between these parameters. We show that these dynamics may have different forms of development, which are usually non-linear and cyclic. The framework also emphasizes the major role of information and social learning in these dynamics.

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Menoni, S., & Boni, M. P. (2020). A systemic approach for dealing with chained damages triggered by natural hazards in complex human settlements. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51

Abstract:

Introduction:

Events entailing multiple phenomena co-occurring at the same time or triggering one another have long been considered the exception rather than the rule. More recently, increased attention has been paid to hazards that are clustered in time and space. This can be explained by the fact that such events have become more frequent. However, it may well be the result of a different approach taken by researchers and practitioners that are looking at disasters through new lenses. Hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions intrinsically entail a variety of associated phenomena; there is no doubt that climate change is modifying the pattern of hazards that depend on meteorological factors, such as storms or floods and is creating unprecedented threats in some regions (eg. Typhoons in the Mediterranean regions and hurricanes far away from the Atlantic belt). On the other hand, the increased complexity of cities and human settlements have made na-techs more frequent than was the case in the early Nineties [1], when the term was introduced for the first time on the basis of an in depth investigation of technological accidents that had occurred in the USA in the previous decade. Enchained, domino and cascading damages are attributes that have been often associated to multiple hazards, natural or man-made, triggered by one another or co-occurring within a short time span. However, they are still in search of a consensual definition to frame theoretical and practical approaches that are required for effective mitigation measures. In the present article such an approach is proposed grounded on two main pillars. On the one hand we aim to understand cascading events as resulting from the chain of different damages and failures that may occur either in association or triggered by one another. On the other hand we consider the complexity of different types of human settlements, showing the variation in types of settlements that can be equally prone to severe enchained affects. Based on literature and past projects, an interpretation of domino and cascading effects as a chain of subsequent damages and losses due to risk factors differentially associated with individual scenarios, is proposed in section 2. Then a typology of settlements and urban environments is discussed in section 3. Section 4 presents a methodology that has been developed in order to reconstruct the chained scenario of damage and losses in different types of urban environments making extensive use of empirical evidence extracted from post disaster reporting. The methodology is then applied to three case studies that are representative of distinct types of settlements in section 5. Section 6 summarizes the main results of the analysis and sets the stage for future research.

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Li, J., Wang, Y., Huang, S., Xie, J., Shekhtman, L., Hu, Y., & Havlin, S. (2019). Recent progress on cascading failures and recovery in interdependent networks. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 40, 101266.

Abstract:

Complex networks have gained much attention in the past 20 years, with thousands of publications due to their broad interest and applicability. Studies initially focused on the functionality of isolated single networks. However, crucial communication systems, infrastructure networks and others are usually coupled together and can be modeled as interdependent networks, hence, since 2010 the focus has shifted to the study of the more general and realistic case of coupled networks, called Networks of Networks (NON). Due to interdependencies between the networks, NON can suffer from cascading failures leading to abrupt catastrophic collapse. In this review, using the perspective of statistical physics and network science, we will mainly discuss recent progress in understanding the robustness of NON having cascading failures features that are realistic for infrastructure networks. We also discuss in this review strategies of protecting and repairing NON.

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Felsenstein, D., Shmueli, D. F., & Thomas, D. S. (2020). Cascades-Mapping the multi-disciplinary landscape in a post-pandemic world. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51, 101842.

Abstract:

This paper introduces the Special Issue on Cascading Effects in Disaster Risk Management. It reviews the contributions and highlights their multi-disciplinary interpretations of cascades. It proceeds to discuss whether the on-going unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the cascades metaphor.

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Felsenstein, D., & Grinberger, A. Y. (2020). Cascading effects of a disaster on the labor market over the medium to long term. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 47, 101524.

Abstract:

We present an economic definition of cascading effects of a disaster on the labor market over the medium to long term. Cascading effects are considered events that alter local amenities. In the context of the labor market, the standard conception of a cascade as a sequence of events that alter the capital stock, may not be very instructive as the immediate time horizon is not the relevant economic timeframe. We outline some of the theoretical implications arising from this definition and give them some intuition based on an agent based simulation model. The model is used to simulate two cascade-type scenarios following an earthquake in the city of Jerusalem. Results indicate that a strong cascading effect in the labor market depends on serious functional change in the physical environment i.e. land-use change. Flow-related changes in labor and population movement are less likely to create effects that cascade into other sub-markets. Implications of these findings point to the key role of labor mobility as workers seek solutions outside the area struck by disaster.

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Felsenstein, D., Shmueli, D. F., & Thomas, D. S. (2020). Introduction to the Special Issue: Cascading Effects in Disaster Risk Management Cascades-Mapping the Multi-Disciplinary Landscape in a Post-Pandemic World. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 101842.

Abstract:

The contributions to this special issue originate from the scientific workshop on the topic of Cascading Disasters: Theory, Methods, and Empirics held at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, in November 2018. This meeting was jointly sponsored by the Israeli National Knowledge and Research Center for Emergency Readiness, and the DIM2SEA research project at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. It brought together leading experts from the fields of industrial management, physics, civil engineering, geography and environmental studies, transportation, urban planning, medicine and  public health, public policy and management, and socio-economic modeling.

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Ben-Haim, Y. (2019). Cascading failures in hierarchical networks with unity of command: An info-gap analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 41, 101291.

Abstract:

Cascading failures occur in networks of interacting agents in which failure at one node can cause further failures. We define the ‘degree of cascading failure’ as the fraction of nodes that could fail as a result of one single failure. This refers to the possibility of failure, and thus involves the uncertainty of failures. We emphasize vulnerability to uncertainty, and employ the concept of robustness as developed in info-gap theory, to study uncertain cascading failures. We study hierarchical networks with unity of command, which means that each node in the hierarchy receives a message from at most one other node. Our concern is in designing the network to adequately manage cascading failures. We explore a situation where the decision maker must choose between design alternatives that entail a dilemma: choose the putatively better but more uncertain option, or choose the putatively worse but more reliable one? The info-gap robustness analysis offers a resolution of this dilemma. This analysis underlies a critique of conventional optimization in which one uses the best data, knowledge and understanding to prioritize the decision alternatives based on predicted outcomes.

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Schwartz Pourrabbani Marla (2020). 15 years after Katrina: The tale of a changing risk landscape. Swiss Reinsurance Company

Abstract:

Though New Orleans’ hurricane exposure and vulnerability have changed since Katrina, hurricane wind and storm surge continue to present a key risk to the Gulf Coast region, despite extensive mitigation efforts. Reviews of historical natural hazards, such as this one, are crucial for understanding today’s risk and for validating probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling and related assessments.

The sample scenarios in this report illustrate how the risk landscape has changed in the last 15 years due to changing hazard, exposure and protection factors. It is crucial to consider such factors when evaluating the current risk landscape or in any modelling exercise at the local level. Additionally, the scenarios here demonstrate the effectiveness of natural-hazard mitigation efforts and flood defences, as well as the role of re/insurance in enabling resilience.

From the article:

If Hurricane Katrina were to hit the US in 2020 with the same wind and storm surge as 2005, but with current exposure information and updated flood protection and vulnerability assumptions, the privately insured losses in the US alone could rise to 60bn (excluding offshore losses in the Gulf of Mexico or losses to the NFIP). This is true, despite the city currently only having 80% of the population it did in 2005. The total economic toll from such an event could likely exceed USD 175bn. These figures illustrate that despite New Orleans’ lower population and strengthened flood protection system, economic losses from natural hazards like Katrina are expected to continue to increase.

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Yagoub, M. M. (2015). Spatio-temporal and hazard mapping of Earthquake in UAE (1984–2012): Remote sensing and GIS application. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 2(1), 13.

Abstract:

This study investigates the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake events taking place in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its effect on the population. In this study seven parameters are used for generation of a hazard map; this includes geology, soil, slope, land use, historical earthquake events, fault line, and roads. GIS weighted overlay analysis is used to demarcate the earthquake risk zones.

Analyzing data from 1984 to 2012 showed that during the period of 28 years there were frequent earthquakes that occurred with intensity ranges from mild to moderate with the maximum magnitude of 5.1. Spatially, earthquake events were found clustered in the Emirate of Fujairah in the Eastern part of UAE (Oman Thrust). Even the magnitude of the earthquakes is low, the frequency of being increased in the past few years coupled with urban development are point of concern and it becomes necessary to develop preventive measures such as hazard maps for the area.

The resulting map prepared is expected to increase the awareness for disaster prevention at the time of need and will help in the systematic and proper development of land use for community planning and mitigation policy.

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