National Knowledge and Research Center for Emergency Readiness - Lynn, Barry

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Lynn, Barry

The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Earth Sciences Department

My research interests have changed over time.  I have investigated the effect of predicted climate change on (future) local weather (using “dynamical downscaling”), the effect of climate change on the intensity of tropical storms, the impact of air pollution (and dust) on tropical and severe storms, and initial conditions and grid-spacing on winterstorm prediction. More recently, my emphasis has turned from research to applications of research ideas.  My emphasis is on using numerical models to improve weather forecasts for the purpose of saving lives and reducing risk to infrastructure.  This involves using high-resolution data sets (such as lightning data) to improve forecasts that can offer advanced warning beyond what is seen by radar or satellite.  In addition, we operated the first fully coupled wildfire atmospheric model (“WRF-SFIRE), which was designed to more accurately forecast wildfire movement and wildfire line intensity. Moreover, because the wildfire model is coupled with the atmospheric model, WRF-SFIRE can predict changes in wildfire intensity (“blowup” or “firestorms”) occurring because of the interaction between the heat of the fire line and the circulation along it.

References:

Lynn, B. H., L. Druyan, C. Hogrefe, J. Dudhia, C. Rosenzweig, R. Goldberg , D. Rind, R. Healy, J. Rosenthal, and P. Kinney, 2004: On the sensitivity of present and future surface temperatures to precipitation characteristics.  Climate Research,  28, 53-65.

Lynn  B. H. A. Khain, J. Dudhia, D. Rosenfeld, A.  Pokrovsky, and A. Seifert, 2005: Spectral (bin) microphysics coupled with a mesoscale model (MM5).  Part 1. Model description and first results. Mon. Wea.  Rev. 133, 44-58.

Lynn, B. H., R. Healy, and L. Druyan, 2007: An analysis of the potential for extreme temperature change based on observations and model simulations.  Journal of Climate20, 1534-1554.

Lynn, B. H., R. Healy, and L M. Druyan, 2009: Investigation of ‘Hurricane Katrina’ characteristics for future, warmer climates, Climate Research39:75-86.

Lynn, B. H., T. N. Carlson, and C. Rosenzweig, R. Goldberg, L. Druyan, J. Cox, S. Gaffen, L. Parshall, and K. Civerola, 2009: A Modification to the NOAH LSM to simulate Heat Mitigation Strategies in the New York City Metropolitan Area, J. Applied. Meteorolology and Climatology48, No. 2. 199–216.

Lynn, B. H., C. Rosenzweig ,,, R. Goldberg,, D. Rind, C. Hogrefe,  L, Druyan, R. Healy, J. Dudhia (C), J. Rosenthal, and P. Kinney, 2010: Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-009-9729-5

  1. J. Mandel, S. Amram, J. D. Beezley, G. Kelman, A. K. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, B. H. Lynn, B. Regev, M. Vejmelka, 2014. Recent advances and applications of WRF–SFIRE. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2829-2845, 2014, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2829-2014Special Issue Numerical wildland combustion, from the flame to the atmosphereNumerical Wildfires, Cargèse, France, May 13–18, 2013.

Lynn, B. H., Y. Y., Price C., Kelman, G., A. Clark, and G. Kelman, 2012: Predicting Cloud-to-Ground and Intracloud Lightning in Weather Forecast Models. Weather and Forecasting, 27, 1470–1488.

Lynn, B.  G. Kelman, G. Ellrod, 2015: An Evaluation of the Efficacy of Using Observed Lightning to Improve Convective Lightning Forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, 30, 405–423.

Lynn, B. H, 2017: The Usefulness and Economic Value of Total Lightning Forecasts made with a "Dynamic" Lightning Scheme coupled with Lightning Data Assimilation. Weather and Forecasting.  32, 645-663.