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סיכונים מוסריים וסיכונים טבעיים: הגורמים המסבירים את היקף הכיסוי הביטוחי לאסונות טבע

דניאל פלזנשטיין ומאשה ורניק

מחקר זה בוחן את השערת קיומו של סיכון מוסרי בשוק הביטוח של סיכונים טבעיים ואנתרופוגניים. במידה והכיסוי הביטוחי אינו משקף את ההתפלגות המרחבית של הסיכונים אנו מפרשים תוצאה זו כמשקפת סיכון מוסרי שבו משקי בית נוטים לא לבטח את נכסיהם. אנו משתמשים בקובץ ייחודי של פוליסות ביטוח של אחד החברות המרכזיות בשוק באזור חיפה (12000 תיקים) ומחברים מידע זה עם מידע של נכסים מתוך מאגר כרמ"ן של רשות המיסים. אנו משתמשים באמידה אקונומטרית כדי להבין את הקשר בין כיסוי ביטוחי לבין החשיפה לסיכונים (טבעיים אנתרופונגניים). אסטרטגיית האמידה מתחשבת בהטעיית סלקציה במידע, קשרים מרחביים מטעים ושאלות של זיהוי (סיבתיות).
הממצאים מבחינים בין כיסוי מבנה לבין כיסוי תכולה. ביחס לכיסוי מבנה נמצא קשר חיובי בין גובה הכיסוי לבין תכונות הנכס (כגון מחיר, שטח, מספר קומות, מחירים בסביבה וגם קשר ישיר עם קרבה לתעשיה ולפשיעה מקומית. נמצא קשר הפוך עם קרבה ליערות ולא נמצא קשר מובהק למוקד רעידות אדמה מסומלצים בכל המגניטודות. ממצא זה מתפרש כתומך בהשערה המרכזית. מספר צעדי מדיניות אופרטיביים מוצעים.

קישור לדו"ח מסכם

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