National Knowledge and Research Center for Emergency Readiness - Bishop, Hines & Collins (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

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Bishop, Hines & Collins (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Bibliographic details:

Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. foresight, 9(1), 5-25.

Abstract:

Purpose – The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

Design/methodology/approach – The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.

Findings – The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.

Practical implications – Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.

Originality/value – Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

Paper