Bibliographic details:

Peleg, K., Bodas, M., Hertelendy, A. J., & Kirsch, T. D. (2021). The COVID-19 pandemic challenge to the All-Hazards Approach for disaster planning. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 102103.

Abstract:

The current paradigm in disaster risk planning and reduction is the All-Hazards Approach (AHA) framework, which suggests that different hazards share commonalities allowing for the generalization of parts of the preparedness to all. A growing body of literature suggests that this approach has many flaws, rendering it suboptimal in promoting disaster readiness. The Novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak is a major wake-up call in this regard. This perspective article uses the experience from the COVID-19 pandemic that disproves or at least undermines, many aspects of the AHA, including early warning, medical public health response, reliance on international assistance, lead agency, and politicization of the crisis. A pandemic is a unique disaster with little relationship to other disaster types and requires an entirely different way of planning. The COVID-19 pandemic is a call to action for a consolidated alternative framework called the Top-Hazards Approach (THA), arguing that inherently different events require different planning and mitigation tactics, and therefore should be prioritized according to likelihood and severity in each local context.

Webpage: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420921000698?via%3Dihub

Bibliographic details:

Asaka, J. O. (2021). Climate Change-Terrorism Nexus? A Preliminary Review/Analysis of the Literature. Perspectives on Terrorism, 15(1), 81-92.

Abstract:

Climate change and terrorism are two key global security concerns of our time. Despite that fact, the two continue to predominantly be analyzed separately by most security studies scholars. However, interest on the interplay between these two concerns has grown considerably particularly over the past two decades. The growth in interest is attributable to the close to two decades of scholarship on the climate-security nexus. That scholarship establishes climate change as a threat multiplier, which worsens existing problems and aggravates vulnerabilities. This text presents findings of a preliminary literature review/analysis of 112 documents published between 2000 and 2020.

The literature review/analysis was guided by the following three broad questions. What does the literature say about the link and/or lack thereof between climate change and terrorism? What is the publication trend for literature that explore the relationship between climate change and terrorism? What insight(s) for future policy and/or research? The text identifies two patterns of interaction with regards to the interplay between climate change and terrorism. On one hand, a simple one-way indirect relationship wherein climate change aggravates existing social vulnerability, which is a known enabler/driver of terrorism. On the other hand, a complex relationship wherein climate change contributes to terrorism and vice versa through a self-reinforcing process characterized by feedback loops.

Webpage: https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26984799.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A9cbc2fda2e18efd0e7941547ba71ab55

Bibliographic details: 

World Meteorological Organization, 2021. State of the global climate 2020 (WMO-No. 1264). .

Abstract:

This report demonstrates the impact of this warming, both on the planet’s ecosystems and on individuals and communities, through superstorms, flooding, heatwaves, droughts and wildfires. It highlights the following:

• Concentrations of the major greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O, continued to increase despite the temporary reduction in emissions in 2020 related to measures taken in response to COVID-19
• 2020 was one of the three warmest years on record. The past six years, including 2020, have been the six warmest years on record. Temperatures reached 38.0 °C at Verkhoyansk, Russian Federation on 20 June, the highest recorded temperature anywhere north of the Arctic Circle.
• The trend in sea-level rise is accelerating. In addition, ocean heat storage and acidification are increasing, diminishing the ocean’s capacity to moderate climate change.
• The Arctic minimum sea-ice extent in September 2020 was the second lowest on record. The sea-ice retreat in the Laptev Sea was the earliest observed in the satellite era.
• The Antarctic mass loss trend accelerated around 2005, and currently, Antarctica loses approximately 175 to 225 Gt of ice per year.
• The 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season was exceptionally active. Hurricanes, extreme heatwaves, severe droughts and wildfires led to tens of billions of US dollars in economic losses and many deaths.
• Some 9.8 million displacements, largely due to hydrometeorological hazards and disasters, were recorded during the first half of 2020.
• Disruptions to the agriculture sector by COVID-19 exacerbated weather impacts along the entire food supply chain, elevating levels of food insecurity.

Webpage: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10618

קמחי, ש. מרציאנו, ה., אשל, י. ועדיני, ב. (יוני 2021). חוסן, דחק ומיטביות בסיום סבב לחימה "שומר החומות", דו"ח מחקר

תמצית
דוח המחקר הנוכחי מתאר את תגובות האוכלוסייה בסיום מבצע "שומר החומות" בשלושה תחומים עיקריים: חוסן ולכידות; תסמיני חרדה, דיכאון, ותפיסת איומים; ומיטביות, תקווה, ומורל. שאלון המחקר הופץ באמצעות חברת פאנל אינטרנטית בקרב מדגם מייצג של האוכלוסייה היהודית בישראל (N=647). להלן הממצאים המרכזיים:
א. החוסן הלאומי גבוה במידה מובהקת בהשוואה לחוסן הלאומי בשיא משבר הקורונה, אך נמוך במידה מובהקת, בהשוואה למדידה משנת 2018 (בתקופה שקטה יחסית, טרום קורונה). החוסן הקהילתי גבוה בהשוואה לשתי המדידות הקודמות. החוסן האישי במדידה הנוכחית נמוך במידה מובהקת וגדולה בהשוואה למדידה הקודמת בשיא משבר הקורונה. מדד הלכידות מראה כי 60% מהנחקרים מעריכים כי אזרחי ישראל מפולגים במידה רבה ורבה מאד, בהתייחס לשורה של נושאי ליבה.
ב. תסמיני הדיכאון והחרדה נמוכים במידה מובהקת, בהשוואה למדידה בשיא הקורונה, אך גבוהים במידה מובהקת, בהשוואה למדידה מ-2018. תחושות הסכנה נמוכות במידה מובהקת, בהשוואה למדידה בשיא הקורונה ואינן שונות מהמדידה ב-2018. תפיסת האיומים (פוליטי, כלכלי ובריאותי) נמצאו נמוכים במידה מובהקת, בהשוואה למדידה בשיא הקורונה, בעוד שהאיום הביטחוני נמצא כגבוה במידה מובהקת, בהשוואה למדידה בשיא משבר הקורונה. מבין האיומים, האיום הפוליטי נתפס כאיום החריף ביותר. בנוסף, המהומות בין ערבים ליהודים בישראל נתפסו כמאיימות על המדינה במידה מובהקת ורבה יותר, בהשוואה לאיום המהומות על הפרט באופן אישי.
ג. רמת המיטביות (איכות החיים הסובייקטיבית) נמצאה כגבוהה במידה מובהקת, בהשוואה למדידה בשיא הקורונה, אך נמוכה במידה מובהקת, בהשוואה למדידה מ-2018. רמת התקווה הייתה גבוהה יותר מאשר המדידה בשיא משבר הקורונה, אך רמת המורל לא הייתה שונה במדידה הנוכחית בהשוואה למדידה בשיא משבר הקורונה.
שתי מסקנות מרכזיות נובעות ממחקר זה. הראשונה מתייחסת לרמת החוסן האישי הנמוכה במידה משמעותית ביותר בהשוואה לכול המדידות הקודמות. ירידה זו בחוסן האישי מדאיגה ומחייבת את מקבלי ההחלטות בישראל להתייחס לכך במסגרת תכנון המענה למצבי חירום מחד והבטחת חוסנה של החברה בישראל בעתות שגרה מאידך. המסקנה השנייה הינה הצורך לנטר את רמות החוסן, הדחק, הלכידות והמיטביות של החברה בישראל לאורך זמן, בהתייחס לאירועים ולמשברים השונים והמגוונים עמם מתמודדים אזרחי ישראל. ניטור זה יאפשר זיהוי החוזקות והחולשות של הציבור בישראל בזמן אמת ויישום צעדי מענה לחיזוק החוסן והלכידות החברתית, שמהווים תשתית לעוצמת החברה והמדינה. 

קישור לדו"ח

Bibliographic details:
Ng, T. C., Cheng, H. Y., Chang, H. H., Liu, C. C., Yang, C. C., Jian, S. W., ... & Lin, H. H. (2021). Comparison of estimated effectiveness of case-based and population-based interventions on COVID-19 containment in Taiwan. JAMA internal medicine.

Abstract:
Importance: Taiwan is one of the few countries with initial success in COVID-19 control without strict lockdown or school closure. The reasons remain to be fully elucidated.
Objective: To compare and evaluate the effectiveness of case-based (including contact tracing and quarantine) and population-based (including social distancing and facial masking) interventions for COVID-19 in Taiwan.
Design, setting, and participants: This comparative effectiveness study used a stochastic branching process model using COVID-19 epidemic data from Taiwan, an island nation of 23.6 million people, with no locally acquired cases of COVID-19 reported for 253 days between April and December 2020.
Main outcomes and measures: Effective reproduction number of COVID-19 cases (the number of secondary cases generated by 1 primary case) and the probability of outbreak extinction (0 new cases within 20 generations). For model development and calibration, an estimation of the incubation period (interval from exposure to symptom onset), serial interval (time between symptom onset in an infector-infectee pair), and the statistical distribution of the number of any subsequent infections generated by 1 primary case was calculated.
Results: This study analyzed data from 158 confirmed COVID-19 cases (median age, 45 years; interquartile range, 25-55 years; 84 men [53%]). An estimated 55% (95% credible interval [CrI], 41%-68%) of transmission events occurred during the presymptomatic stage. In our estimated analysis, case detection, contact tracing, and 14-day quarantine of close contacts (regardless of symptoms) was estimated to decrease the reproduction number from the counterfactual value of 2.50 to 1.53 (95% CrI, 1.50-1.57), which would not be sufficient for epidemic control, which requires a value of less than 1. In our estimated analysis, voluntary population-based interventions, if used alone, were estimated to have reduced the reproduction number to 1.30 (95% CrI, 1.03-1.58). Combined case-based and population-based interventions were estimated to reduce the reproduction number to below unity (0.85; 95% CrI, 0.78-0.89). Results were similar for additional analyses with influenza data and sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions and relevance: In this comparative effectiveness research study, the combination of case-based and population-based interventions (with wide adherence) may explain the success of COVID-19 control in Taiwan in 2020. Either category of interventions alone would have been insufficient, even in a country with an effective public health system and comprehensive contact tracing program. Mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic requires the collaborative effort of public health professionals and the general public.

Webpage: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33821922/

Bibliographic details:

Pham, Q. D., Stuart, R. M., Nguyen, T. V., Luong, Q. C., Tran, Q. D., Pham, T. Q., ... & Kerr, C. C. (2021). Estimating and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound associated with reopening of international borders in Vietnam: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health.

Abstract:

Background Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After a prolonged period of little to no transmission, there was an outbreak of unknown source in July, 2020, in the Da Nang region, but the outbreak was quickly suppressed. We aimed to use epidemiological, behavioural, demographic, and policy data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang to calibrate an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission for Vietnam, and to estimate the risk of future outbreaks associated with reopening of international borders in the country.

Methods For this modelling study, we used comprehensive data from June 15 to Oct 15, 2020, on testing, COVID-19 cases, and quarantine breaches within an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to model a COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang in July, 2020. We applied this model to quantify the risk of future outbreaks in Vietnam in the 3 months after the reopening of international borders, under different behavioural scenarios, policy responses (ie, closure of workplaces and schools), and ongoing testing.

Findings We estimated that the outbreak in Da Nang between July and August, 2020, resulted in substantial community transmission, and that higher levels of symptomatic testing could have mitigated this transmission. We estimated that the outbreak peaked on Aug 2, 2020, with an estimated 1060 active infections (95% projection interval 890–1280). If the population of Vietnam remains highly compliant with mask-wearing policies, our projections indicate that the epidemic would remain under control even if a small but steady flow of imported infections escaped quarantine into the community. However, if complacency increases and testing rates are relatively low (10% of symptomatic individuals are tested), the epidemic could rebound again, resulting in an estimated 2100 infections (95% projected interval 1050–3610) in 3 months. These outcomes could be mitigated if the behaviour of the general population responds dynamically to increases in locally acquired cases that exceed specific thresholds, but only if testing of symptomatic individuals is also increased.

Interpretation The successful response to COVID-19 in Vietnam could be improved even further with higher levels of symptomatic testing. If the previous approaches are used in response to new COVID-19 outbreaks, epidemic control is possible even in the presence of low levels of imported cases.

Webpage: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(21)00103-0/fulltext#seccestitle80

Bibliographic details:

Liu, B. F., Shi, D., Lim, J. R., Islam, K., Edwards, A. L., & Seeger, M. (2021). When Crises Hit Home: How US Higher Education Leaders Navigate Values During Uncertain Times. Journal of Business Ethics, 1-16.

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of a global pandemic, this study investigates how U.S. higher education leaders have centered their crisis management on values and guiding ethical principles. We conducted 55 in-depth interviews with leaders from 30 U.S. higher education institutions, with most leaders participating in two interviews. We found that crisis plans created prior to the COVID-19 pandemic were inadequate due to the long duration and highly uncertain nature of the crisis. Instead, higher education leaders applied guiding principles on the fly to support their decision-making. If colleges and universities infuse shared values into their future crisis plans, they will not have to develop a moral compass on the fly for the next pandemic. This paper suggests the following somewhat universal shared values: (1) engage in accuracy, transparency, and accountability; (2) foster deliberative dialog; (3) prioritize safety; (4) support justice, fairness, and equity; and (5) engage in an ethic of care. To navigate ethics tensions, leaders need to possess crisis-relevant expertise or ensure that such expertise is present among crisis management team members. Standing up formal ethics committees composed of diverse stakeholders also is instrumental in navigating tensions inherent in crises. The next pandemic is already on the horizon according to experts. Through infusing values into future crisis plans, higher education leaders can be confident that their responses will be grounded in their communities’ shared values.

Webpage: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-021-04820-5

Bibliographic details:

Ashraf, A. (2021). Lessons learned from COVID-19 response for disaster risk management. Natural Hazards, 1-6.

Abstract:

Decision and policy makers in disaster management are compelled to look at alternative measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. They require integrated measures to both reduce the spread of COVID-19 and response to disasters. The measures to mitigate damage of disaster amid COVID-19 can become expensive and inefficient compared to single disaster responses, resulting in delays. Hence, a balance is crucial to successfully manage co-occurring disasters, and new holistic approaches are necessary to produce efficient responses during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Webpage: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-021-04658-0

Bibliographic details:

Gesser-Edelsburg A, Zemach M, Hijazi R. Who are the “Real” Experts? The Debate Surrounding COVID-19 Health Risk Management: An Israeli Case Study. Risk Management and Healthc Policy. 2021;14:2553-2569
https://doi.org/10.2147/RMHP.S311334

Abstract:

Background: The uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 crisis and the different approaches taken to manage it have triggered scientific controversies among experts. This study seeks to examine how the fragile nature of Israeli democracy accommodated differences of opinion between experts during the COVID-19 crisis.

Objective: To map and analyze the discourse between experts surrounding issues that were the topic of scientific controversy. To examine the viewpoints of the public regarding the positions of the different experts.

Methods and Sample: A sequential mixed study design. The qualitative research was a discourse analysis of 435 items that entailed mapping the voices of different experts regarding controversial topics. In the quantitative study, a total of 924 participants answered a questionnaire examining topics that engendered differences of opinion between the experts.

Results: The results showed that there was no dialogue between opposition and coalition experts. Moreover, the coalition experts labeled the experts who criticized them as “coronavirus deniers” and “anti-vaxxers.” The coalition changed its opinion on one issue only—the issue of lockdowns. When we asked the public how they see the scientific controversy between the coalition and the opposition experts, they expressed support for opposition policies on matters related to the implications of the lockdowns and to transparency, while supporting government policy mainly on topics related to vaccinations. The research findings also indicate that personal and socio-demographic variables can influence how the public responds to the debate between experts. The main differentiating variables were the personal attribute of conservatism, locus of control, age, and nationality.

Conclusion: Controversy must be encouraged to prevent misconceptions. The internal discourse in the committees that advise the government must be transparent, and coalition experts must be consistently exposed to the views of opposition experts, who must be free to voice their views without fear.

Webpage: https://www.dovepress.com/articles.php?article_id=66120

Bibliographic details:

Calder, P. C. (2021). Nutrition and immunity: lessons for COVID-19. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 1-10.

Abstract:

The role of the immune system is to protect the individual against pathogenic organisms. Nutrition is one of multiple factors that determines the immune response and good nutrition is important in supporting the immune response. Immunity can be impaired in older people, particularly those who are frail, in those living with obesity, in those who are malnourished and in those with low intakes of micronutrients. The immune impairments associated with nutritional inadequacy increase susceptibility to infection and permit infections to become more severe, even fatal. The adverse impact of poor nutrition on the immune system, including its inflammatory component, may be one of the explanations for the higher risk of more severe outcomes from infection with SARS-CoV-2 seen in older people and in those living with obesity. Studies of individual micronutrients including vitamin D and zinc suggest roles in reducing severity of infection with SARS-CoV-2. Good nutrition is also important in promoting a diverse gut microbiota, which in turn supports the immune system. The importance of nutrition in supporting the immune response also applies to assuring robust responses to vaccination. There are many lessons from the study of nutrition and immunity that are relevant for the battle with SARS-CoV-2.

Webpage: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41430-021-00949-8